Suited Connectors Analysis (very long post)

[intensity]

I followed your post up to this point:
7s6s vs AsAd 776 YES NUTS Full House NO NO YES NO NO NO NO NO 9 905 0 0,052035% 85 91,414% 0,048% 0,047567% 0,043100% 0,043100%

then i lost you.

[Adrian20XX]

intensity,

I still don't know how to format the table properly, don't know what the code tags are (sent a PM), and didn't got the long ---- line to work neither.

So, I'll try to explain that line, the rest are the same.

You have to read it with the first line, that was:

Type Flop Plays After The Flop Nuts Subtype Straight Flush Quads Full House Straight Flush Trips 2 Pair Other # of Flops 7s6s Wins After Flop 7s6s Ties After Flop Probability 7s6s Loses After Flop 7s6s Equity After Flop Equity * Probability INITIAL POT Coeficient BET Coeficient STACK Coeficient

And the line where you lost me was:
7s6s vs AsAd 776 YES NUTS Full House NO NO YES NO NO NO NO NO 9 905 0 0,052035% 85 91,414% 0,048% 0,047567% 0,043100% 0,043100%

So, this means:
Type: 7s6s vs AsAd (the Hand we are analizing)
Flop: 776 (we flop this full house)
Plays After The Flop: YES (we ain't folding my friend !!!)
Nuts: NUTS (this hand is the nuts at the flop)
Subtype: Full House (we flopped a full house)
Straight Flush: NO (this ain't a straight flush)
Quads: NO (this ain't quads)
Full House: YES (this is our beloved Full House)
Straight: NO (this ain't a straight)
Flush: NO (this ain't a flush)
Trips: NO (this ain't trips)
2 Pair: NO (this ain't 2 pair)
Other: NO (this ain't one of the other non considered hands)
# of Flops: 9 (there are 9 combinations of this flop)
7s6s Wins After Flop: 905 (from the 990 combinations of river and turn, we win 905). PokerStove
7s6s Ties After Flop: 0 (from the 990 combinations of river and turn, we tie 0). PokerStove
Probability: 0,052035% (probability to flop this hand, = # of flops / C(48;3) )
7s6s Loses After Flop: 85 (from the 990 combinations of river and turn, we lose 85)
7s6s Equity After Flop: 91,414% (equity on the flop).
Equity*Probabilty: 0,048% (equity * Probability)
INITIAL POT COECIFICENT: 0,047567% (check the previous post of the set for the explanation)
BET COEFICIENT: 0,043100% (check the previous post of the set for the explanation)
STACK COEFICIENT: 0,043100% (check the previous post of the set for the explanation)

Regards ...

[intensity]

Hm, i was just making a joke about how i understood all the other lines except that one specifically, but thanks for claryfing it in laymen terms [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Adrian20XX]

intensity,

If you took the time to write the post, it will only take you two minutes to understand that with the explanation, to calculate the number of flops by your self (7d7c6d, 7d7c6c, 7d7c6h, 7d7h6d, 7d7h6c, 7d7h6h, 7c7h6d, 7c7h6c, 7c7h6h), to check the number of times the hand wins, ties, loses and it's Equity on the flop with PokerStove.
The last three thing should take you five extra minutes to read the old post of the set (ok, perhaps a bit more :-) ), but basically it says that this flop adds to your ev that fractions (the coeficient) of the initial pot before you called, of the bet size you called, and of the size of your opponent (or the ammount you can get him to call you), and it does perfectly consider the chances he has to outdraw you.

Regards ...

[CallYNotRaise06]

ok, can we get something for the tl;dr crowd?

[DonkBluffer]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, can we get something for the tl;dr crowd?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes.

U R LAYZEE

[FiSheYe]

Uh I am pretty clueless when it comes to maths here..
I think we will always try to get it in with a good combodraw or 2pair and better.. we will call a lot of flops with toppair or a flushdraw.. this analyse is quite complicated because we should consider handranges.. I mean what percentage of 3bets pf can we call with 76s against a tight, semi-looseaggr., looseaggro opponent? What would be the stacksizes.. It's also good to call more so that we disguise our handranges and won't fold too often against lighter 3betters to discourage them from doing it... There is so much more stuff involved in this analysis.. quite hard to know whats best. I had often a scenario where I called the UTG raiser (6max) on the button with 76s and then he check,folded the flop.. decreasing required odds to hit... or K72 rainbow flop, UTG bets, co calls, I call everyone checks to me and I bet, they fold.. I think suitedconnectors can be called quite lightly but dunno how to put a analysis.. Plus position and out of position makes a huge difference if a call is worth or not.

Sorry for no help but great work [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[SilentNoise]

wow

[Matt Flynn]

Cool table OP.


I wrote a section that covers this for PNL (with distilled probabilitites, and not in the math detail VanVeen is discussing). The section is pretty much done, but there wasn't enough room for it in volume 1.

Here's part of the executive summary:

You will not flop hands often enough to play for make-a-hand value with small cards unless your opponents are passive preflop and very loose postflop, and the stacks are at least medium. "Hit my hand and bust someone" is not a viable strategy except in the easiest loose games. If your opponents aren't that bad, playing weak-tight with suited connectors is a _substantial_ leak.

You must steal sometimes to make these hands profitable. You may ALSO need to be able to correctly get away from moderate hands like two pair and a pair with a straight draw -- depending on the stack sizes, the payoffs when you hit a hand, and how often you can steal.

Before you play small cards, decide whether you have a decent chance of stealing and whether it's a good time to try. If the answer is no, fold.

Small cards are highly positional, because position makes it much easier to steal.

If you need a rule of thumb, figure with suited connectors and one-gappers you need to steal on average enough to cover about 75% of your (small) preflop investment. That rule is imprecise and errs on the side of caution for some games, but it gets you focused on stealing. No big news for MSNL/HSNL.

%*@%#* we need to get these books finished.

VanVeen: looking forward to what you guys come up with. Love the number crunching.

Matt


________________________________________________
Matt Flynn
Co-author, Professional No-Limit Hold 'em

[The White Rabbit]

[ QUOTE ]

Before you play small cards, decide whether you have a decent chance of stealing and whether it's a good time to try. If the answer is no, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
It might still be ok to play them if it allows you to make more $ on your small pp's.