30/60 Stud Hi Flush

[blumpkin]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm really surprised you didn't raise 4th. Given that, and your board, he has you on some double paired hand and makes your 3-bet even easier.

[/ QUOTE ]

Joe, what do you think he hand range is after he calls the bet from my open QQ on 5th?

[Alex/Mugaaz]

In order:

Any Ace high 4 flush with, or w/o a pair, maybe with a gutshot

A pair of Aces with a 3flush.

Maybe trip kings waiting for you to brick 6th before putting in a raise, but it's doubtful, and after 6th's action non-existant.

[Bill Murphy]

[ QUOTE ]
Typical aggressive 5-handed game, but no specific reads on the main villain here. 3-bet the river or just call, and is it close? Comments until then?

7 Card Stud High ($30/$60), Ante $5 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.83 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 3: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in_folds
Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes___folds
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___calls

4th Street - (6.17 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (4.08 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (6.08 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

River - (8.08 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx___raises
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets___?

[/ QUOTE ]

What hole cards does villain 3-bet 3rd, bet 4th, call 5th & 6th, and raise 7th with, knowing that hero is getting 11-1 on a call?

I think it's AA (he'd have to have caught the caser on 7th), KK or JJ (somewhat unlikely; you'd think he'd raise 6th), straight flush cards, or big flush cards. And like Alex says, he could've backdoored a straight.

If he's raising on a busted flush or two-pair, God bless him. And you certainly can't fold to a 4-bet getting 14-1 against an unknown opponent.

Pretty close, and we don't know how he plays, but I lean towards calling. I think the hands he 4bets with & the hands he calls with and wins outweigh the cards he calls with and loses.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say he's got jacks full.

[Alex/Mugaaz]

I don't think KK or JJ are possible when you combine 5th and 6th action.

[blumpkin]

When he raised, I thought, "Wow he made a flush, should I 3-bet? Yes." And so I did, he called, and I lost to the AK flush. After thinking about the hand afterward, I think I should just call because if he has the flush (which is likely given 5th/6th calls and 7th raise), it is probable (though of course not definite) he has the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] given the 3rd street repop. The only other hands he could have (barring some longshot goofy hand) would be pocket aces turned aces-up or trip aces (probabilistically unlikely given our hand) making a thin value river raise, or the flush draw that hit a straight. As stated, he'll never have trip Ks and Js because he will raise either 5th or 6th with those monster hands. Consequently, the likelihood of a full house is quite low.

In short, his most likely hand is the AK flush, followed by a K-high flush, followed by aces up. Thus, I think a 3-bet is marginally incorrect, but definitely not horrible since he almost surely will not cap the betting (in part because of our open pair) and will most likely call with hands we beat that he raised for value.

[Sevenfold]

[ QUOTE ]
When he raised, I thought, "Wow he made a flush, should I 3-bet? Yes." And so I did, he called, and I lost to the AK flush. After thinking about the hand afterward, I think I should just call because if he has the flush (which is likely given 5th/6th calls and 7th raise), it is probable (though of course not definite) he has the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] given the 3rd street repop. The only other hands he could have (barring some longshot goofy hand) would be pocket aces turned aces-up or trip aces (probabilistically unlikely given our hand) making a thin value river raise, or the flush draw that hit a straight. As stated, he'll never have trip Ks and Js because he will raise either 5th or 6th with those monster hands. Consequently, the likelihood of a full house is quite low.

In short, his most likely hand is the AK flush, followed by a K-high flush, followed by aces up. Thus, I think a 3-bet is marginally incorrect, but definitely not horrible since he almost surely will not cap the betting (in part because of our open pair) and will most likely call with hands we beat that he raised for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was an enjoyable post blumpkin, and I was pretty sure he had the AK flush as we went along as you gently tried to lead us in the right direction. I wish I had responded one more time before you posted the results, but I didn't, so...

"what do you think he hand range is after he calls the bet from my open QQ on 5th?"

I had thought about this question for a couple of days, and I came up with the same answers you just mentioned, AA or the 3 flush holding the A.

Given all of the discussion, I have come to agree, in this specific situation, the raising is incorrect. (Yes, this is post results, nonetheless, I think I have been honest about my opinion the whole way).

In the heat of battle I'm 3-betting this every time. For 2 reasons.

1) We're protected against a cap because of the Q's,(which you have just mentioned).

2) It's not obvious that our hand is a flush. I could easily see aces up popping the river.

So there is my final analysis. Give me 4 seconds to think about it, 3 bet it every time.

Give me four days, and I'm just calling.

Good job on a nice post.

[Bill Murphy]

After thinking for awhile, I think Villain should raise 6th no matter what he has. From the way the hand was played, Hero's most likely hand is 4-flush w/Q's, and he is really put to the test to call unimproved on the river then, IMO.

Raising 6th gives Villain a strong chance to win with the worst hand on 7th if neither improve, and he's still prolly gonna get three bets if BOTH improve. Anyone else agree?

FWIW I don't think the re-raise on 7th was too bad at all.