#1
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equity problem, help me out
Let's say $200 in the pot preflop.
Both players have $1000 left. The flop comes down. Player 1 bets the pot $200. Player 2 looks at his cards and figures he has a 12-outer, or a 45% chance to win. He decides he's going to raise. How do I figure (algebraically) player 2's equity upon raising? also: let's say player 2 goes all in every time. If player 1 will call every time, at what size stack does player 2's all-in raise become unprofitable? |
#2
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Re: equity problem, help me out
Hey Roswell , maybe this will help .
Player two goes all in and bets 1000 into a pot containing 400 . Therefore player one is getting 1400:800 or 7:4 on the bet . If he folds 100% of the time , he is down to 800 . If he calls , then he is a 55% favorite . EV if player one folds is 0 . EV if he calls is 1400*0.55-800*0.45=410 . Or 2200*0.8 - 800 =410 . Suppose player one folds x% of the time on the flop and thus loses his $200 bet . Then he loses 200*x%/100 but he wins (1-x)*410/100 . Therefore it's positive EV for player one if the following is true . 410*(100-x)/100 -200x/100>=0 solve for x you get . After multiplying both sides by 100 you get 41000-410x-200x>=0 41000>=610x 67>=x So it's positive EV for player two if player one folds more than 67% of the time . Second question : Player two bets x amount knowing that player one will always call on the flop and will be a 55% favorite . Player two is essentially getting pot odds of (x+200):x which means that we want x/(x+x+200) =0.45 solve for x and you get x=900 which means that if player two bets more than 900 than it becomes negative EV . |
#3
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Re: equity problem, help me out
[ QUOTE ]
Let's say $200 in the pot preflop. Both players have $1000 left. The flop comes down. Player 1 bets the pot $200. Player 2 looks at his cards and figures he has a 12-outer, or a 45% chance to win. He decides he's going to raise. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] How do I figure (algebraically) player 2's equity upon raising? [/ QUOTE ] His equity is simply (45+ (.55F))% of 1400 dollars, where F is the probability, expressed as a percentage, that Player 1 will fold. [ QUOTE ] also: let's say player 2 goes all in every time. If player 1 will call every time, at what size stack does player 2's all-in raise [Note: this isn't a raise, it's a bet. -Jogger] become unprofitable? [/ QUOTE ] Player 2's push will always be profitable given the stipulated stack sizes. |
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