B&M LO8 3/6 Full Kill hand

[EffenDolts]

With two people in the pot before you call the flop bet, you can't possibly believe there are four queens left in the deck? Even if the lead bettor doesn't have a made nut str8, you have to figure that one or both of the villains started with a high hand. Two high hands are going to have at least one Q by random chance.

Fold the flop.

Effen

[jlocdog]

EffenDolts,

Thats is a very bad way to look at this. Villian/s could very well have set/2pair/dummy straight/TPTK (stretch but can't discount).

If you have a flush draw do you assume villian has to have "atleast' one since he has 4 cards and there would be no way he would continue without either a draw himself or atleast to take one of your possible outs away?

Stop this thinking. You will see monsters around every corner if you continue.

[EffenDolts]

[ QUOTE ]

Thats is a very bad way to look at this. Villian/s could very well have set/2pair/dummy straight/TPTK (stretch but can't discount).

If you have a flush draw do you assume villian has to have "atleast' one since he has 4 cards and there would be no way he would continue without either a draw himself or atleast to take one of your possible outs away?


[/ QUOTE ]

No, this is a completely different case. If I flop NFD with only two of the suit in my hand, then I could calculate my outs as 9 out of 45 unseen cards. If I assume that villain has exactly one of my suit (the most likely case), then my outs are 8 out of 41. This is barely any worse odds for making my NFD. In this sense, I agree with you that this makes little difference in your odds of drawing out.

However, in the hand in question, you have to put the lead bettor on a high hand most of the time and A78x some of the time. He could also have A8Qx, which uses up an out. Then, you have two callers in front of you. Note that it is very improbable that the bettor and callers all have just set/2-pair with no Queen. (This would require that they have at least 6 of the remaining 9 cards that match the flop ranks.) The 9, T, and J are crappy starting cards, and most sane people only play these if they have some connecting cards. In a live game, I suppose 789T could be the connecting hand, but a Q is more likely than 78[9TJ].

Another way of looking at is is that there are 16 unseen high cards. If your remaining oppenents limped half decent high hands, they probably hold at least nine of them among their 12 cards. Even randomly, this means they hold 2 queens. Since they like the flop, they almost certainly hold at least 2 queens between them.

I don't like to limp high hands with 9's, but many players will limp 4 cards above 8 or hands like AHHMs, so you could be up against 3 hands with only 3 high cards each. It is still hard to see how you could get to this situation without at least nine high cards and probably 2 queens in your opponents hands.

Any way I slice it, I still think you have at least 2 queens accounted for by your opponents. This leaves you with 2 outs in 33 cards, plus back-door draws.

People who like high flops tend to have a lot of high cards in their hands. People who love suited flops almost never have 4 of that suit when you hold the NFD. Big difference, IMO.

Effen

[Buzz]

Hi again Effen - [ QUOTE ]
Any way I slice it, I still think you have at least 2 queens accounted for by your opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]I disagree. Four opponents holding a total of 16 cards see this flop and then three opponents holding a total of 12 cards continue. I don’t know how many queens they have between themselves. It’s a $3/$6 game. Maybe they don’t all play perfect mistake-free poker.

I’m going to give Idiot I 8765- all clubs, Idiot II AJT2-all diamonds, and Idiot III AA23-double suited in clubs and hearts. Or how about if we give Idiot I A2JJ, Idiot II A2TT, and idiot III A2JJ.

Yes, I know those are absurd speculations. But so is insisting they must have two or more queens (although, I’ll agree, two queens is not quite as absurd as the possibilities I’ve posed above).

You figure probabilities on the basis of what you can see. There is no evidence any one of these three opponents holds one queen, let alone two or more queens. Sure, someone probably has a queen, but I don’t think it’s necessarily correct to figure that way.

[ QUOTE ]
This leaves you with 2 outs in 33 cards, plus back-door draws.

[/ QUOTE ]I disagree.

[ QUOTE ]
People who like high flops tend to have a lot of high cards in their hands.

[/ QUOTE ]Don’t you think it depends on the individual? There are players in my games who would be delighted to see the flop if dealt
8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and then what is somebody who would play such a hand going to do with a flopped straight plus two back-door straight-flush draws after this JT9-rainbow flop? Sure, you don’t play that starting hand crap, and I don’t play that starting hand crap, but people do. And sure, you don’t play flopped bottom end straights with no chance for low and I don’t either, but some people do.

A cautious approach is sensible. But this is a $3/$6 game, not the final table at the world series. Hero is getting great implied pot odds to see the turn after this flop.

Buzz

[jlocdog]

Buzz,

As always, well said. Your analytical and mathematical approach to the game is thoughtful and insightful. I do appreciate when you chime in and offer your intellect.

I think this spot is very marginal either way and one can't be faulted for folding or calling the flop (the turn action we have both agreed with from the beginnning). You have brought up some good points and numbers to back them up and have convinced me that my 'you must fold' approach may be a bit hasty. Again, this descision is close in terms of pot odds to implied odds and dynamics and flow of the table will ultimately define my stance.

Till the next hand.....

[EffenDolts]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't you think it depends on the individual? There are players in my games who would be delighted to see the flop if dealt 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and then what is somebody who would play such a hand going to do with a flopped straight plus two back-door straight-flush draws after this JT9-rainbow flop? Sure, you don’t play that starting hand crap, and I don’t play that starting hand crap, but people do. And sure, you don’t play flopped bottom end straights with no chance for low and I don’t either, but some people do.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP has two of the 8's. I don't know much, except that villain doesn't have 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Buzz, you are the last person that I expected would create a fantasy scenario where all villains have rather improbable hands that leave you with any equity. Giving them xx78 when you have xx88 is really wishful thinking. They are 50% more likely to have QK than 78 by random chance, and even more likely based on how hard it is to have a good starting hand with 78, and how the action has gone so far.

The only way you can have any equity is if villains have low cards. Nothing else works. Even if several villains started playing low, you still have to worry about chopping with AK.

I didn't assign any queens to villains in my sim setup. I just assumed that they had a few high cards, given that they are staying in on a high-only flop. If they started with high-oriented hands, OP is probably drawing much thinner than you would guess.

By Bayesian inference, villains hands are rich in high cards, and especially rich in Queens.

Remember, even 3/6 donkeys don't draw for runner-runner-runner low.

Effen

[Buzz]

Hi Effen -

[ QUOTE ]
OP has two of the 8's. I don't know much, except that villain doesn't have 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]You’re right about that, but he could have
8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. And that is not a fantasy.

[ QUOTE ]
Buzz, you are the last person that I expected would create a fantasy scenario where all villains have rather improbable hands that leave you with any equity.

[/ QUOTE ]Thank you. I don’t really think they have the improbable hands I gave them. I was trying to make a point.

[ QUOTE ]
Giving them xx78 when you have xx88 is really wishful thinking. They are 50% more likely to have QK than 78 by random chance, and even more likely based on how hard it is to have a good starting hand with 78, and how the action has gone so far.

[/ QUOTE ]Agreed.

[ QUOTE ]
The only way you can have any equity is if villains have low cards. Nothing else works.

[/ QUOTE ]I’m not hedging, but I don’t know what you mean by “any equity.”

I don’t think the Villains have all low cards, but I don’t think they necessarily have all high cards either. Any one of them (or all of them) might easily have two low cards plus two high or medium cards they think fit this flop. Putting them all on high cards is not <font color="white">_</font>as improbable as the “fantasy” hands I created, but it is improbable.

But mainly, you simply cannot nail down any missing queens. You simply cannot assume these opponents are playing with some specific number of queens.

[ QUOTE ]
Even if several villains started playing low, you still have to worry about chopping with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]Excellent point. I actually figured that in when calculating the e.v.

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't assign any queens to villains in my sim setup. I just assumed that they had a few high cards, given that they are staying in on a high-only flop.

[/ QUOTE ]Of course they have high cards! And probably more than a few!

[ QUOTE ]
If they started with high-oriented hands, OP is probably drawing much thinner than you would guess.

[/ QUOTE ]Not really. If they all started with high-oriented hands, I’d guess OP is drawing very thin. But the thing is, they probably didn’t <font color="white">_</font>all have high oriented hands. Indeed, it’s much more likely that most of them had hands with a couple of low cards plus a couple of high cards.

[ QUOTE ]
By Bayesian inference, villains hands are rich in high cards, and especially rich in Queens.

[/ QUOTE ]Agreed.

[ QUOTE ]
Remember, even 3/6 donkeys don't draw for runner-runner-runner low.

[/ QUOTE ]Thanks for the laugh. I agree.

Buzz

[jlocdog]

[ QUOTE ]
EffenDolts,

Villian/s could very well have set/2pair/dummy straight/TPTK (stretch but can't discount).

[/ QUOTE ]

taking away 50% of your outs here is wrong on just an assumption.

Also I would like to note that my OP was for folding.

[EffenDolts]

[ QUOTE ]

Thats is a very bad way to look at this. Villian/s could very well have set/2pair/dummy straight/TPTK (stretch but can't discount).



[/ QUOTE ]

I did some simulations to show how bad a shape you are in just because you opponents probably don't have a lot of low cards. I didn't give any villains a Q explicitly. In fact, 6 of their 12 cards are explicitly NOT queens in this simulation:

http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...h4=ALBB&amp;h5=

Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
102,748 trials (Randomized)
board: ThJs9d Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
AsKs8d8h 10.76% 7,726 7,726 7,496 0 0
ALNN 21.37% 17,843 17,843 9,081 0 0
BBMM 39.66% 37,755 37,755 6,409 0 0
ALBB 28.21% 23,309 23,309 12,270 0 0

I would be interested if you could manipulate villains' holdings to give OP decent equity in the pot (without giving them lots of low cards). OP certainly doesn't have implied odds, since a Q on the turn makes idiot str8s and 2-pairs lose hope.

Effen

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I would be interested if you could manipulate villains' holdings to give OP decent equity in the pot (without giving them lots of low cards).

[/ QUOTE ]Hi for a third time today Effen - If you insist they all play as tightly as or more tightly than you, and if you insist they all play as well as or better than you, then it’s hard to come up with hands for three opponents such that Hero would get paid off on the river here.

But five people saw this flop and then four continued after this flop. I don’t take that as meaning all those who continue have a decent hand with which to do so. Strong players might shave a corner in order to stay in this pot with a contributing customer.

With the information given, it’s very hard to know what cards three opponents might be holding after this flop. Even if sitting at the table it would be hard to know.

One factor simulations don't show is if Hero misses on the turn, Hero folds. A second factor simulations miss is when Hero picks up a spade draw on the turn, if he misses on the river, Hero folds. And the simulations don't show whether or not Hero exercises good judgement when he makes the nut straight or nut flush on the turn and the board subsequently pairs on the river.

However, opponents with straights, sets, or even two pairs, might not exercise good judgement when Hero makes the nuts. They might make mistakes.

Does the guy in middle position who has been playing a lot of hands and is pretty aggressive have top set or the current nut straight when he bets this flop? Perhaps. However, maybe he merely hopes no one else will have a fit with this all-high-card flop.

Two others call the flop bet. Do they have the top set or the nut straight? Perhaps. But if so, you have to wonder why they didn’t raise - and if not, you have to wonder why they are still in the pot.

Do all three of these opponents have high cards or does somebody have a queen? Are all of Hero’s outs already taken up by the hands of these three opponents? I don’t know. It’s possible, but not necessarily so.

With only has four inside straight draw outs plus a back-door flush draw, Hero is certainly behind after this flop. If Hero insists on seeing the river card regardless of the turn card, then Hero is not playing well and would definitely do better to fold. Or if low was posible, then with only about five outs for high, Hero should definitely fold. But assuming these opponents are capable of making mistakes, then I think Hero has great implied pot odds to see one more card after this flop.

I could have made a mistake in my assumptions or in the math, but I did calculate what I though was Hero’s e.v. last night. The result of that process is the basis for my believing Hero has favorable odds to continue. At this time I just don’t feel like trying to explain or elaborate on the assumptions or math. But I could post the scratchwork calculations including the assumptions I jotted down while running through the process if anybody wants to see and asks to see my figures.

Buzz