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#21
03-17-2007, 04:12 PM
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Re: 200NL: A-A flops set 270BB deep; raise river?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I purposly bet alot smaller than average on hopes that he would "make a move." It felt like a good time bc I have the board pretty locked up and it's very dry. [/ QUOTE ] ??? why should he bet small when villians is gonna call anyway??? id shove the river against this guy. he can have many more hands than a straight and i dont think he ll fold a smaller set if u push. [/ QUOTE ] This guy was a moron. He liked to make moves. I wasn't trying for the call, I was trying to get him to make a big raise.. What hands can he have? What can he call with? I have no doubt that he calls with ANY set, he might call off with two pair, and he will call with either straights. He will fold all bluffs and 1 pair hands and prob weaker two pairs. You still push here? Put him on a range.... I think I might suck at EV calucuations, but I keep getting -EV for raising this river; this actually surprising. [/ QUOTE ] How can you be getting -$EV when there's one very unlikely hand (JT) and one possibly likely hand (65) that beat you? 
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#22
03-17-2007, 04:22 PM
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Re: 200NL: A-A flops set 270BB deep; raise river?
:grunch:
He is always calling your CB, yet you only bet $10 into $17 here? I would lead flop for $16. Next, I would 3bet the turn. He likes his hand. Get some money in. On the river, this is an easy easy raise for me against the type of villain you describe. If he has JT or 65, oh well, but these hands are pretty unlikely given the action so far, and a donk like this definitely calls you with two pair or a set, which are way more likely IMO.
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#24
03-17-2007, 05:15 PM
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Re: 200NL: A-A flops set 270BB deep; raise river?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I purposly bet alot smaller than average on hopes that he would "make a move." It felt like a good time bc I have the board pretty locked up and it's very dry. [/ QUOTE ] ??? why should he bet small when villians is gonna call anyway??? id shove the river against this guy. he can have many more hands than a straight and i dont think he ll fold a smaller set if u push. [/ QUOTE ] This guy was a moron. He liked to make moves. I wasn't trying for the call, I was trying to get him to make a big raise.. What hands can he have? What can he call with? I have no doubt that he calls with ANY set, he might call off with two pair, and he will call with either straights. He will fold all bluffs and 1 pair hands and prob weaker two pairs. You still push here? Put him on a range.... I think I might suck at EV calucuations, but I keep getting -EV for raising this river; this actually surprising. [/ QUOTE ] How can you be getting -$EV when there's one very unlikely hand (JT) and one possibly likely hand (65) that beat you? [/ QUOTE ] Do you play with true maniacs often? I m posting this hand because my buddy would have played the hand differently. I called villan's river bet. He had K high. My buddy wanted me to push. I see no value in raising the river or the turn. On the turn, he has air or a straight too often to make raising profitable. I really think people underestimate how often villans have nothing in this spot. As far as the EV calculations, I put villan on air about 40% of the time, straight 35% of the time, hand that can't call a raise 20% of the time, and non straight that can call 5%. The numbers are arbitrary and just my gut based on villan. You guys need to think about why you make a certain action. The only response I have gotten is you got a set vs a maniac. Not a single person spoke about bluffing frequencies or EV.
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#25
03-17-2007, 05:21 PM
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Re: 200NL: A-A flops set 270BB deep; raise river?
[ QUOTE ]
:grunch: He is always calling your CB, yet you only bet $10 into $17 here? I would lead flop for $16. Next, I would 3bet the turn. He likes his hand. Get some money in. On the river, this is an easy easy raise for me against the type of villain you describe. If he has JT or 65, oh well, but these hands are pretty unlikely given the action so far, and a donk like this definitely calls you with two pair or a set, which are way more likely IMO. [/ QUOTE ] Villan likes to bluff weakness, so I showed weakness. When you say you are raising, I really don't think you know the fundamental concepts behind raising for value. Put him on a range and its frequency... what can call? what can't call? How often will he have the hands that can call and the hands that can't call? Unless he will call off with not much, there is not much value in raising. You know what, your right that I'm probably ahead 85% of the time in this spot. But of the times I'm ahead, I don't think he will call that often. Alot of it is my fault since I haven't bluffed villan in the past; I play pretty straight foward against him for obvious reasons. If I had shown down a bluff recently I would be more inclined to make this play in the hopes that he would call with a wider range.
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#26
03-17-2007, 05:22 PM
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Re: 200NL: A-A flops set 270BB deep; raise river?
Yes i think you should raise the river, you can push or raise to about 300.
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#27
03-17-2007, 05:46 PM
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Re: 200NL: A-A flops set 270BB deep; raise river?
as others have said, more on flop.
i like your turn play. if there were more two card straight combos possible, you'd have to 3b since there are more semibluffing hands he could have. with these stacks i have no idea what raise size is best. if he will shove with all lower sets/two pair, it doesn't matter a ton, but we want to avoid negative freerolling here. i would thus go kind of big, like 375. obviously call a shove all day.
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