Big Pot Bottom set nl100

[TeddyKGB69]

I dont like the fold here at all. That is a very conservative play.

[ASPoker8]

awful

[jskinn04]

Now matter how loose aggro this guy had been, his massive c/r in a five person pot screams monster to me. I think he either has a flush or 44 if he's value betting. If he's only value betting,

Board: 3s 4s Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.838% 29.48% 00.36% 5545 67.50 { 3d3h }
Hand 1: 70.162% 69.80% 00.36% 13130 67.50 { 44, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As2s, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 6s5s }

If he's making a play with hands like A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x, Kx[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], or a pocket pair with a spade,

Board: 3s 4s Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.325% 42.08% 00.24% 11665 67.50 { 3d3h }
Hand 1: 57.675% 57.43% 00.24% 15920 67.50 { TcTs, TdTs, ThTs, 44, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As2s, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 6s5s, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, KcQs, KdQs, KhQs }

I only added T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T, A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q, and KQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] because he doesn't have those sort of semi-bluff hands nearly as often as he's got a real hand given the line he took in a five-way raised pot.

Both of these sims show that the laggy player needs to be semibluffing or bluffing a ton in order to make it worthwhile to keep going with the hand. I'm not saying that it's for sure a good laydown, but I can't see how it's an easy call.

[Barrin6]

LMAO @ this post.

[Jdanz]

your range includes a ton of unequally weighted flush hands and not enough random one pair plus spade and two pair hands and is really worthless.

[jskinn04]

[ QUOTE ]
your range includes a ton of unequally weighted flush hands and not enough random one pair plus spade and two pair hands and is really worthless.

[/ QUOTE ]

I calculated the min pot equity (including rake) that you need to get it in and it's 42%. When I add A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K to his range of value betting hands, Hero's equity is better than that. I now agree with common wisdom on this one. Against this player, this is an easy shove (and bad fold). Against a nit, it's probably a toss-up.

[DirteAA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
your range includes a ton of unequally weighted flush hands and not enough random one pair plus spade and two pair hands and is really worthless.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really think this guy is going apeshit with those types of hands in a five-way pot? Heads up, it's the easiest all-in ever, but this is a five-way pot and he put a massive cr on a big field.

[/ QUOTE ]

The cr was only HU, the other 3 players had folded. Flush is possible, but folding is yuck.

He could easily have As2x, As5x, As4x, AsKx, QsKx. I couldn't fold here, especially to someone that is pretty aggro post flop. Even if he does have the flush you have 35% of filling up.

[Pegasus]

with all due respect...suck it up and push