Switching from Online to B&M...When should I stop and reavaluate?

[Lievyon]

I've been playing online at Poker stars for about 5 years now. Started with 100 bucks and went broke then put in another and managed to work that up to $4,200. I'm not a 40-80+ hour a week player. I'm much more casual but love studying and learning that game.

For years I've heard how soft B&M card rooms are. Well I recently moved and have several close to me. After watching the games I almost had to pinch myself when I saw how bad the players are. I'm no expert, but I found it quite easy to spot the fish vs. the better players.

So I sit down and here are my sessions so far.

1. 4 hours for -$3
2. 5 hours for $125
3. 12 hours for $60
4. 7 hours for $200
5. 4 hours for -$200
6. 8 hours for -$200

-$117/40 hours

BB/hr = -.36

Now the last 12 hours is the part I'm obviously concerned about. One thing I will say is in that 12 hours I flopped no FH, Flushes, Str8, or even 2 pair. I made 1 flush on the river and 1 full house after flopping my only set in that 12-hour period of time. Very cold card and cold deck.

I consider myself very good at bankroll management. I bring $200 and got up both times I got stuck. My question is: Is this run of cards seem normal for a B&M and when should I stop and make sure It's not me. So far I am very happy with my play. Being a $4/$8 game you almost always see the river and if you made the right play. I would say I'm well into the plus side of correct dicisions, I just can't get the fishys money.

Any moral support/personal experience/advise appreciated.

[albinoskunk]

12 hours @ 25 hands/hour = 300 hands
not a significant sample size
play more hands, you will come out on top
you still have a long way to go before your swing gets unrealistic and becomes your fault.

[FatedEquity]

Yes, your sample is far too small to draw any statistically significant conclusions. You can achieve the same number of hands in less than an hour of online play. In addition, you will have a higher standard deviation when playing looser games, so it's something to consider.

As for when to quit, it should only be dependent on if you are not playing your best, or if the game has gotten bad. The latter doesn't occur too often in live small stakes games.

[Tzen]

Live Play in Loose games comes with terrible swings against very bad players. I can show you my figures. The hardest part is that it's often easy to win 200/500 bucks and next day loose the same amount of money. Between 2 days of play against almost the same players I sometimes have a 800 dollar gap, swings are high in loose games and you do not play a lot of hands to get a low variance for a night playing.

As long as you feel you are playing good and can afford the swings I should keep going.

In a 5/10 games I win about $15 an/hour with swings from -600 to +1600.

[Chino987]

FYI, last year I had a very bad run in B & M 4/8 (around 90 BB's) over a few months. It may have been cold deckedness, but I think the most important factor was playing too loose esp preflop. I suggest you keep a running tab on your starting hands over the course of your next session to keep track of how you're playing and then make the appropriate adjustments. Then, you come back stronger than ever [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Ralph Wiggum]

Once, my friend played about 13 hours in a limit HE game live & didn't win a single hand. Not one. Then 1/2 a year later, it happened to me also [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

You've played about 3 hours of online play & you're down 12 bets. There is nothing here to evaluate. There isn't much else to do but keep playing. At 4/8, I personally wouldn't worry unless you have something like a $800-1200 losing streak (even this should be expected by a regular player).

[Bob T.]

Sample size, lievon.

You've played 40 hours, at 35 hands per hour, that's only 1400 hands. Over that time, you are stuck 15 Big bets. It isn't a big deal. If you recognize the games as easy, you should be able to eventually beat them, and in your estimation, you have been running poorly, so it isn't surprising that you are slightly behind.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[WMB]

Like others have said, sample size is too small. One thing you really need to keep in mind is if you average more than 8 bucks an hour at that level your doing very well, but again, you need to play alot of hours to get a more accurate idea of how you're doing. After 500 hours, if you are ahead more than a BB an hour, it is probably safe to say you're a winning player.

[Frond]

OP, I had the very same reaction when I wnet to play live last year for the very first time. I really did expect to see a lot better play than I did. I was so nervous about being th eworst player at the table but it was in truth the opposite and I don't have a lot of time under my belt yet.

I am kind of in your spot in that I don't hae th time to play a ton of hours on a weekly basis but I do keep track of stats and hands that I misplayed or were questionable I try and rehash here a bit on the forums or with others on line. The long run of thionhgs for me may not be for another 5 years or so but I feel like I am on the right track and improving all the time.

[Lievyon]

Thanks for the reply guys. I just wanted confirmation of what I was thinking. Sometimes, that alone is enough to keep you playing your A game and not falling into the trap of playing 3,5 off suit hands.

What I find funny is I'm running so bad players at the table felt bad for me. Last hand of the night. Folded to me in MP. I raise with A,Js. get 4 callers. Flop is A,8,2 rainbow. Checks to me so I bet out 4 and get 2 callers. Turn card is 10 so the board is A,10,8,2 no flush possiblilies. Check all around to me so I bet 8 and the lady that had been killing me all night is the only caller. She was your average VLP ATC player. Although she will raise with big pairs and A,K suited. River is the 5. She checks and I could just see this weird dread look in her eyes. I check and she slowly flips over 3,4 offsuit. She shakes here head about 3 people groan and I say GL everyone and get up and cash out. Ugly stuff for sure.

As far as my hand selection I would say I play about 8-12 hands/hr with 3-6 of those being BB/SB. If anything I think I might be playing a little too tight. Mostly I only raise with AA,KK and AK suited. Sometimes I raise with A,Qs and A,Js. Limp in with most A,xs and suited connectors. Feel I play the pot odds pretty well. If I'm being laid 10-1 on a flop bet I have no problems calling a gut shot on a non-pair/non-flush board. I like to have the best hand or best draw.

The reason I stop at $200 dollars is more a mental thing than I go on tilt or start playing bad. I only stop when ahead if the game goes bad, I just have to go, or I actually can't stay awake [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I went though my winning low limit book and hold'em for advance players ( the loose games section) and I look to be playing right down the middle so I'll just continue to go get my ass handed to me for know. I guess the good part of a very negative streak is when you catch up it's sweetness.