200-400 During LAPC...Im such a donkey!!!!

[Nomar]

3 handed, the game has been full all night, recently a couple of the big winners quit, and the big fish just left to play 1k-2k <sigh>, we continue playing hoping he/ or somone else joins us...

Im in the 5 seat
Roman, local pro, probably one of the biggest winners out of the regular lineup of 1-2 players is in the 3 seat
Sang (sp), AC pro, solid and tricky at times, is in 8 seat

background, we have now been 3 handed for about an hour or so, with Roman being the most aggressive, with fairly predictable preflop lines. He coldcalls Sang's button raise from the SB everytime, and checkraises the flop virtually everytime

I have been playing solid, and have not been caught out of line yet, but looking for a good spot to steal one...

on to the hand...

Sang opens on the button, Roman coldcallin SB, I call in BB with K2 of hearts

Flop comes 653 with one heart, checked to Sang who makes the C-Bet, Roman checkraises and I 3 bet

Sang pauses and 4 bets, Roman instantly folds, I call

Turn offsuit ten I check-call

River 4, I bet...


comments ?

[Scary_Tiger]

Nice suckout?

[Nomar]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice suckout?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was looking for something more along the lines of "standard?"

[Voltaire]

nc...but I want to see the donkey!

[daryn]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice suckout?

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exactly my thought

[Charon]

Don't like your line at all.

I fold the flop after the check-raise. Playing on seems just spewing. I don't think this is a good type of flop to make a play.

[elindauer]

So many thoughts. Where to begin? Let's start before the flop. No. Too late. Let's start before the hand even takes place.

You say your opponents are raising a lot, cold-calling a lot, and betting and check-raising each other all the time. Why are they doing that? Why is this game still going on? You think it's just to pass the time, but all signs point to your two opponents believing that you are too tight. They are playing because they think they have an edge on you, and they are content to build pots with weak hands because they think the dead money you are contributing from the BB overcomes the defecit.


ok, on to the hand...

On the flop, your 3-bet is probably +EV. In fact, it practically doesn't matter what your hand is or what the flop is, just going crazy and betting every chance you get postflop is probably +EV given the view these guys have of you.

So if this is the last hand you are going to play for the night, you clearly should play it like a maniac. However, just because a play is +EV doesn't mean you should play it! In fact, there is a hidden cost here. If you make this move and end up showing your hand, their image of you is going to change. It's going to become more correct, and that costs you money. So even though this bluff is going to show an immediate profit, it may not be the way to go.

Personally, when I have a tight image, I avoid making big moves in spots where there are lots of ways to have draws. On a 3-straight board like this, any single card deuce through 7 has either a pair or a straight draw / gutshot + overcard. Best case for you is that they both have 2 overcards to the flop. In light of that, it's not exactly an ideal board to make a move... it's a little more likely than normal that you'll have to show your hand, and showing your hand in itself costs you money.

but ok, you chose to make a move here, and it's fine. Maybe not the spot I'd have chosen, but no big deal. It might even be right. Let's move on to the 4-bet...

If he thinks you are too tight, his hesitation is kind of a "whoa, 3-bet? wow, that's strong. crap, but I really have a hand here! ok, I 4-bet." So we know we are drawing. what range can he have? I'd say anything from an overpair to, say, top-pair + straight draw, to anything bigger. Probably not a naked draw like A4 or something.

So you call the flop obviously, as against this range, even a king may be good and of course a 4 looks pretty solid albeit not a lock. Now the turn...

By my count, you are getting 9:1 to call the turn. I think it's pretty close but probably there. So folding is out, although if you note that folding enhances your super-tight image, you've got to give it serious consideration. Let's say you're not going to fold though... should you call?

Well, this guy clearly believes you hit the flop. If you are already calling, a raise is getting 10:1 to fold a better hand. Given your overall image as an overly tight player, you've gotta like those odds. Your true odds are actually even better because of your solid draw against a hand like 88. Noting the extra value gained from not having to show this down, I think you need to put in an extra bet here on the turn.

Having called, donking the river looks pretty good. Too much risk that he is betting the turn intending to take a free showdown if offered. Crying call a raise.

good luck.
Eric

[Charon]

Sorry to say, but this is a very bad analyses IMO.

No way that "just going crazy" is +EV. Thats ridiculous, especially on this type of board.

Raising the turn?? No way thats +EV. The only hand your opponent might fold is if hes drawing himself and misses. But this is gonna take a bet on the river as well. But since , especially given heros image, a made hand is way more likely, a turn raise is spewing. Clearly -EV.

You also contradict yourself. On the one hand you say that "the guy clearly believes you hit the flop", yet he still 4-bets you, and you think there still is enough fold equity on the turn?

It was just a spew-play. Not much too it.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, this guy clearly believes you hit the flop. If you are already calling, a raise is getting 10:1 to fold a better hand. Given your overall image as an overly tight player, you've gotta like those odds. Your true odds are actually even better because of your solid draw against a hand like 88. Noting the extra value gained from not having to show this down, I think you need to put in an extra bet here on the turn.

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I think he gets 3-bet more often than he gets a fold.

[J.A.Sucker]

I like betting out on the flop here. It opens a lot of good things up for your hand.