Waiting till the turn 3way, then folding the river

[Guy McSucker]

Stars 3/6. I am here to try to relearn the game since I have been losing so much at higher limits. How am I doing this hand?

I raise KQo UTG and the SB and BB both call. SB is vaguely TAGish, overrates top pair. BB is almost a maniac (56/40/2 stats over 100 hands or so) but fairly trustworthy on the river.

Flop is K 9 5 with no suits of interest and SB donks. This is often top pair. BB calls. I decide to call and raise the turn.

Question 1: is that reasonable? The flop is quite draw-free.

Turn is a 7. SB bets, BB calls, I execute my plan and they do what they always do.

River is a 6. SB bets, BB raises, I fold.

Yes?

Guy.

[Newtown]

Given that the flop is drawless and BB is horrible and will probably call the turn with any pair, I like the turn raise. However, if BB were a bit more reasonable I would prefer to get a raise in on the flop as there's no guarantee he'll call a turn bet or that SB will even bet the turn.

[sharpie]

I would just raise the flop. I expect SB to fire the turn alot, but BB might be peeling the flop with air and we'll often miss out on that bet. Plus SB will 3 bet his worse TP. Also you'll sometimes be facing 2 cold on the turn and put in an awkward position.

On the river wtf does tagfag have? How can he have an 8 unless he misclicked PF or has 88? I think you should fold if the maniac is fairly trustworthy on the river. It gets interesting if he's likely to bluff raise the river. In that case I would call because I can't put SB on a better hand.

[Burnsabre]

I don't think your hand is quite strong enough to be waiting for the turn in a 3 way, HU this pretty much standard for me. But as it is, there could be A9, A5, KJ, KT, etc out there... and you're dodging alot of cards, or one of them could have flopped a set or 2 pair in which case waiting from the turn will get you this information very expensively. It turned out to be a nice card, everything worked perfectly, and BB had to pay double to make his draw (good fold on river btw)...

[F Paulsson]

Well played.

[F Paulsson]

I thought the play was standard so I didn't explain myself. Looks like I might need to now.

I think this is a perfectly OK spot to wait until the turn to raise, given our reads. We know that we won't lose SB as a customer and we are, in fact, giving ourselves the chance to act with more information once we get to the turn. Sure, BB might be calling with air, and might not come along for another bet on the turn, but is that really that likely on a K-high board as dry as this one? What's he calling with?

There are meta game considerations in pulling this off with a hand as weak as this as well, of course, but that's secondary. I think we have a decent chance to trap BB for a big bet instead of a small bet and we can definitely get two big ones +1 small out of SB instead of two small ones + 1 big. We don't give up our positional advantage quite yet and our hand is not very vulnerable. This play looks A-OK to me.

Edit: Clarification

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
I would just raise the flop. I expect SB to fire the turn alot, but BB might be peeling the flop with air and we'll often miss out on that bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this.

[F Paulsson]

Even if we stipulate that SB will always fire the turn, and BB will always call one (and then another one, I guess) bet on the flop but never a single bet on the turn, we get:

2+2 small bets, and one big bet = 3 big bets from raising the flop
1+1 small bets and two big bets (we raise the turn) = 3 big bets from raising the turn.

So even in the best case scenario for raising the flop, we still only "make" as much as we do if we raise the turn. Or what am I missing?

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if we stipulate that SB will always fire the turn, and BB will always call one (and then another one, I guess) bet on the flop but never a single bet on the turn, we get:

2+2 small bets, and one big bet = 3 big bets from raising the flop
1+1 small bets and two big bets (we raise the turn) = 3 big bets from raising the turn.

So even in the best case scenario for raising the flop, we still only "make" as much as we do if we raise the turn. Or what am I missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Best case scenario is SB donking the turn again and BB keeps calling. In that scenario HERO will get 2*1 BB's in on the flop and 2*2 BB's in on the turn, 6 BB's total.

[F Paulsson]

If SB donks the turn also, I'm not raising.