WPT Shooting Star TPTK Monotone Flop

[TakenItEasy]

This is another entirely read dependant hand so I'm not sure if I can get any help here. 10K event, 100/200/25 10 handed.

My image is laggy, with lots of cbets and 2 barrels.

I have AK in MP and make a standard raise to 900. CO and button call.

Flop comes Kh,xh,xh.

I was watching the other players look at the flop through my sunglasses so I don't think they are aware that I'm looking at them. They seem disinterested so I fire 2000 and CO calls. I put him on a flush draw, maybe KQ posibly with the Qh

CO is a European player so posibly a pro. However in previous hands I noticed that he would sometimes seem comfortable and others uncomfortable. No showdowns to match these reads. If he was acting he deserves an Oscar. His play has been TAG and I haven't seen him get too out of line.

Just before the turn he was staring intently at the board as if hoping for something.

Turn is a blank.

I fire 5,000 hoping to get him off a combo draw and he very quickly fires all in for about 15,000 more. To me this looks like he wants me to fold.

We have equal stacks.

I go into the tank for a very long time and make comments like "I should give this up but I really feel like your still on a draw." He looks extremely uncomfortable.

Logically if he was thinking I didn't have anything why not raise the flop with his KQ or a flush draw knowing that I would probably fire on the turn. With the line he took I gave him credit for the flush but my reads told me otherwise.

I have recently been having a lot of trouble with monotone flops. Any advice on the frequency of bluffs seen here in general?

Other advice on the hand as played? Should I always play this as WA/WB and try and keep the pot small?

[TakenItEasy]

I usually don't bump my own posts but this hand has been haunting me for the last few days so I could really use some help.

I wanted to see how anyone else sees it because it's to painful for me to be completely objective.

I'm leaving now but I will be back later to hopefully read some responses. My own thoughts are it was a bad laydown and I will explain why later.

edit: BTW on the Kh xh xh blank turn I don't remember the exact cards but I don't remember there being any reasonable straight draws on the flop so lets say it was Kh,8h,2h,6c. Of course combo straight flush draws are always posible on an unpaired turn but I think unlikely from this player since I hadn't seen him call too many raises BTF and wouldn't expect low suited connectors/gappers.

[holdemft]

If you want to go off reads completely here, and forego the math, then you should have called. Go with your instincts. If your read was a bluff, look him up. you're getting 2-1. I guess it all depends on how strongly you feel about your read. I've seen ppl look extremely nervous because they want you to call so bad because they have the nuts, and they're afraid you'll fold. If you call, you better be more sure its a bluff/semi-bluff then not.

Based on your description of the play, I would have layed this down too, and I wouldn't feel pained about it. If he was bluffing, congrats to him, move on to the next hand.

[TakenItEasy]

If you think of reads in terms of percentage, for example I'm x% sure he has Ahx, KQ, KQh. What does the x need to be?

[holdemft]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.795% 58.04% 01.75% 21261 642.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 40.205% 38.45% 01.75% 14085 642.00 { AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, AhTc, AhTd, AhTs, Ah9c, Ah9d, Ah9s, Ah8c, Ah8d, Ah8s, Ah7c, Ah7d, Ah7s, Ah6c, Ah6d, Ah6s, Ah5c, Ah5d, Ah5s, Ah4c, Ah4d, Ah4s, Ah3c, Ah3d, Ah3s, Ah2c, Ah2d, Ah2s, KcQh, KdQh, KhQc, KhQd, KhQs, KsQh }

[holdemft]

You're still 60-40 even if you put AQ/KQ hearts in his range. I take back what I said, this looks like a call.

[TakenItEasy]

That range is too wide and I don't think it's very accurate to think of it as one big range. For example I think Ah,Jh plays this line much much more than Ah,Jc since Ah,Jc would usually either raise/call the flop and if call then only call/fold the turn. The call flop raise turn would normally eliminate the Ah,Jc from his range without a read.

Here is what I came up with and I'm willing to discuss:

Think of it as he either has the flush in which case I am dead or he is on a read dependant semi-bluf, or weak value play which cannot be assigned full value but can be assigned a read dependant value as in: He played it like a flush but I am x% certain that he doesn't have the flush, based on reads, with this range:

Board: Kh 8h 2h 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.068% 59.09% 13.98% 520 123.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 26.932% 12.95% 13.98% 114 123.00 { AKs, KQs, AKo, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, KQo }

I need to think he is making a wierd move with those hands X% to make it correct for the 33% pot odds

.73*X=.33
X=.33/.73=.24

So I need to be 25% certain that he is making an unusual play with those hands to make a correct call.

[Cablelessray]

you guys did the math so i guess i won't bother.

just wanted to say that he could be nervously looking at the turn because he flopped second nut flush... my friend told me i gave away that tell last year because i was SO worried the Ax might hit the nuts... he of course played with me 4 times a week for 2 years... and i no longer have that tell. anyway, with that considered i don't think you should worry so much about the fold.

[Tyler Durden]

In my experiences this line is rarely a bluff. Almost nobody calls the flop and raises all-in on the turn w/ a hand that isn't beating black AK here.

If you bet 5k on the turn and he wants to raise w/ a real hand it pretty much has to be all-in so I don't think that info should make it a call for you (hopefully that makes sense).

Generally speaking, unless he's really bad he would have raised the flop w/ a set or a King+flush draw. I think calling the flop and then raising the turn on this flop is going to be a flush a vast majority of the time.

[TakenItEasy]

[ QUOTE ]
In my experiences this line is rarely a bluff. Almost nobody calls the flop and raises all-in on the turn w/ a hand that isn't beating black AK here.

If you bet 5k on the turn and he wants to raise w/ a real hand it pretty much has to be all-in so I don't think that info should make it a call for you (hopefully that makes sense).

Generally speaking, unless he's really bad he would have raised the flop w/ a set or a King+flush draw. I think calling the flop and then raising the turn on this flop is going to be a flush a vast majority of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do agree that this line is very unusual for anything but a flush and infered that in the OP.

[ QUOTE ]
Logically if he was thinking I didn't have anything why not raise the flop with his KQ or a flush draw knowing that I would probably fire on the turn. With the line he took I gave him credit for the flush but my reads told me otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

and also here:

[ QUOTE ]
For example I think Ah,Jh plays this line much much more than Ah,Jc since Ah,Jc would usually either raise/call the flop and if call then only call/fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

My point in this post was when physical tells are saying something unusual is going on.

1) My image has been very laggy with many CBets and double barrels so he may have thought I was weak.
2) When staring at the turn it looked like he was hoping for a card
3) The very quick and dramatic push screamed go away. If he had the flush he would want a call
4) When I was thinking it over he looked extremely nervous which matched earlier reads I had on him in previous hands.

I later calculated the hand range he might make this play with and figured how strong my read would have to be to make it a correct call which was I would need to be correct 24% of the time. Note that I would never include these hands in his range without a read which is why I calculated it seperately.

I felt that my reads were much more than 24% certain that he was making a play for the pot or he just thought I was weak.

I think this hand is a good excercise in mathematically incorporating those times in live play when you suspect something fishy that is beyound just logical reads. In this case I would need to be 24% certain he didn't have it to make a correct call when I was actually much more that 50% certain that he didn't have a flush. Again, as a baseline, I would normally think this is a flush 95% of the time just based on experience.

I later talked to him on the break and he said he had KQ but did not specify if the Q was a heart.

As Daniel Negreanu once said on High Stakes Poker something to the effect of: You need to know the geeky math and computer simulations side of poker but you also need that old school "You know, I just don't think you got it"

I just think that you can still quantify that old school part of it in your calculations.