$50NL - TT facing weird river overbet

[zacd]

villain is 15/7.5/3

i probably call:reraise this hand preflop 50/50 but in this case not reraising has gotten me into a tough river decision.

was thinking of bet/folding turn but was hoping to see a showdown for maybe 2/3 pot or so on the river but he made that odd bet.

Full Tilt Poker
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
5 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
BTN: $78.15
SB: $140
BB: $37.6
UTG: $50
Hero (CO): $50

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($0.75, 5 players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1.75</font>, Hero calls $1.75, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($4.25, 2 players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $2.85</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $9</font>, UTG calls $6.15

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] ($22.25, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">River:</font> 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] ($22.25, 2 players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $25</font>, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $25 returned to UTG

[Leviathan101]

not really much of an overbet. He basically bet the pot.

I call the river bet... but I call too much with overpairs.
I think he has a pocket pair, and checking the turn shows weakness. I call because I think 88, 99, and JJ take this exact line.

[barryc83]

Looks like he missed his turn c/r... I'd fold river, he has JJ-AA a lot IMO, sometimes 5s/7s full. People like this dont bluff really IMO.

[zacd]

[ QUOTE ]
I call because I think 88, 99, and JJ take this exact line.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree w/ this but I believe thats why the river is a fold. I really only beat 88, 99, and a bluff. JJ-AA play this hand exactly the same.

[Leviathan101]

you're still getting close to 2:1 on your money, and I think AA might just flat out come over the top on the flop. Possibly KK as well. I think QQ JJ might slow down, but I'm not really sure. Unfortunately we dont know how he thinks but I think most players know the "average" player reraises with AA-QQ. So that means a hand like JJ+ is less likely to slow down than 88-99 that could be dominated. I make the call here because you're getting 2:1 on the river and i feel its less likely he flips over JJ then he flips over 99.

[98Suited]

I'm not sure I like the flop raise. There's not a whole lot of hands he'll continue with that we beat. Why not just call the flop, which is very dry, and see what he does on the turn? Think he would fire a 2nd barrel with like AK?

Maybe I'm talking out of my ass [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Let me know...