NL: big bets = air or nuts mentality

[omgwtfnoway]

apxg, you'll probably love this question [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i see a lot of hands where villain makes a large bet turn or river that make for a tough decision. either OP or someone responding inevitably says, "this is a bluff or a straight/flush/boat."
my question is twofold:
1) is this laziness in hand reading or is it often an accurate range for villain?
2) should i have this range with my own big bets late in the hand or is this too much information to give away to an observant opponent?

[Bovine_U]

Why do think that this mentality is laziness? Generally opponents don't shovel in money on coordinated boards w/ hands less than two pair.

If your opponent knows that you are prone to make hero calls w/ middle pair type hands then he may be more likely to bet big w/ TPGK or something. However, I think unless you have a history with your opponent, then the three barrels or c/r-shove lines are monsters or whiffs. That hasn't been your experience?

I'm not sure exactly what you are asking w/ the 2nd part of the post.

[whaahhahahah]

i posted something like this awhile ago. cwar sent a sweet link

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/...=0&fpart=1

[WutRUTryin2Hit]

Interesting you posted this, because something I have been working on myself is making big bets with good but not really suprt-strong hands (that I think are the best hand of course) against opponents I may play in the future or for a long session. I'm talking about hands like 1 or 2 pair on boards that aren't necessarily ideal for 1 or 2 pair (as opposed to 1 or 2 pair hands on boards where 1 or 2 pair is very strong). While there are obvious problems with doing this too often, or not carefully enough, it's something that in a metagame context can make you trickier to play with in future hands against a regular opponent.

Some good things can happen that you might not consider at first too, like if your opponent is OOP and drawing, and hits his draw on the river, if he knows you will always check a good but not great hand behind, he will always lead the river. Suddenly though, if he thinks you are going to make a bet with medium-strength hands, he may look to checkraise instead, and if you have a good read on him, this will be the time that you check the river.

I think the key is really to do this now and then, but have your opponent think that you're doing it more than you are. If he expects you to have a very strong hand as often as you have a medium-strength hand, but in reality you are going to have a very-strong hand 70% of the time and medium strength 30%, you are suddenly in a great position to get paid off more on your very-strong hands, not to mention often extract extra value from your medium-strength hands when he makes looser bluff-catcher calls.

p.s. whaahaahhaa, your link is broken

[WutRUTryin2Hit]

btw one tiny note, I think it's useful to not think of the term "nuts" too much here, since in HU, we all know that hands that are weak even just 6 handed can be practically the nuts. I tried to change everywhere in my post where I said "near-nuts hand" to say "very strong hands", so as not to imply that a hand has to really be close to the nuts to be super-strong in HU. Opponents matter too of course, against some opponents I am scared to value bet hands that I would gladly make a large bet with against other opponents. (Most opponents tend to fall into the latter category since people online obviously call too much).

[whaahhahahah]

i think this one should work

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/show...o=0&fpart=1