KQ calldown/fold?

[Set_Wenker]

Villain is mp2 24/6/0.95 over 200 hands
Hero UTG K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Online 1-2 10 players

PF: hero raises, mp3 reraises, hero calls.

Flop: (7,5sb) J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, villain bets, Hero raises, Villain 3-bets, hero calls.

Turn: (6,75bb) 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero checks, villain bets, hero???

Villain is pretty passive so I guess we are beat like always here. Do I call down or fold?

What would I do when Villain has stats like 16/8/2,5, does this chance anything?

[FatedEquity]

I play this WA/WB after villain 3-bets preflop. Since you've inflated the pot with all that raising, you have to call this turn.

[Grease]

Blah.

I WA/WB here, and I don't think it's close.

C/C, C/C, B/F is a great line here, and you only allow villian to punish you with a better hand and fold with a worse one if you insist on putting more bets on the flop. Given the nature of this villian, I might (I would need a solid read to do so) c/c the flop and c/f the turn, if he doesn't value bet much and likes to check behind when he has missed overs.

But against anyone else, WA/WB is the order of the day.

[seano34]

6% pf raise is going to be pretty much TT+, AJo+, AJs+

He is pretty passive to be re-raising AJo or AJs or 3-betting middle pair, so I would put him on JJ+, AQs, maybe a small chance of AK so 32 combos

You have 5 outs which are probably not clean outs, a Q makes a boat for JJ and loses to AQ (11 combos), but beats AK/KK/AA (21 combos), the K loses to JJ, KK, AK (18 combos) and beats AQ/AA (14 combos) so they are probably worth 3 outs in all and the pot isnt paying enough.

[Todd]

seano or anyone else.

Can you please do a quick thumbnail of how you get "AK/KK/AA (21 combos)" and the others AQ/AA (14 combos).

Thanks for answering an admittedly basic question,

Todd

[Set_Wenker]

Allright thanks. I looked up the WA/WB line and it seems pretty obvious. I feel pretty stupid not figuring this play out myself, but now that I read it I m wondering: why the hell did I checkraise? :-) I mean there's no point in doing it HU.

There is another thing though. If we asign a hand range based on Villains pf-raise percentage. He could have AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK or AQs here. So we are ahead to only the 16 AK's and behind to the 28 other hands. I am wondering if it's right to call this a WA/WB situation. Because it seems I am way behind nearly twice as much.

[shuinthehouse]

I think you are on the right track assigning JJ-AA and AQs-AK to a 6% PFR villain who RR PF. Then when this passive (.95) villain 3 bets a QJ5 flop you can almost definitely throw out AK. You are now behind his whole range, getting 8.75-2 to call the turn and river. Sounds like a fold.

[seano34]

[ QUOTE ]
seano or anyone else.

Can you please do a quick thumbnail of how you get "AK/KK/AA (21 combos)" and the others AQ/AA (14 combos).

Thanks for answering an admittedly basic question,

Todd

[/ QUOTE ]

Todd - AQ = One Q, no Aces on the board, One Q no Aces in heros hand leaving 2 Q and 4 Aces in the deck, so 8 ways of making AQ (only 2 ways of AQs - diamonds and spades)

4 Aces in the deck, so 6 ways of making AA = 14 combos in total.

Same principle for the other hands.

I just use that when I make the assumption that I have outs that are not clean ie. they improve some of the villain's holdings as well; and to get an approximation of how much to discount the outs, as there is little point in calculating drawing odds on the basis of full outs which will may improve your hand and the villain's.

Just card distribution to calculate the likely holding given the range

[seano34]

If you look at the top 6% hands in Poker stove you can include TT and AQo,AJs, AJo.

But having said that I think you can narrow that further with the 3-bet after the c/r on the flop as others have said

[Gap23Razor]

i probably call down here and be mad at myself later for not folding

preflop KQo i limp or even fold from UTG usually...

also, the 3rd stat (.95) is overall aggressiveness no? and if near 1, with a low preflop of 6% with 24 $VPIP i think that means the villain is better than 2.0 post flop agression, which is fairly aggressive for that stage--am i wrong with my interpreting the stats?

because i think the villain is more aggressive post flop than preflop, i think perhaps he is overplaying his hand...thus i call down...