8:1 flopping a Jack vs. an Ace

mdb · #1 03-13-2007, 01:39 PM

Sklansky states on p. 34 in No limit Hold'em that it is 8:1 to hit a jack and not an ace on the flop. Does anyone know how to calculate that?

BruceZ · #2 03-13-2007, 05:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Sklansky states on p. 34 in No limit Hold'em that it is 8:1 to hit a jack and not an ace on the flop. Does anyone know how to calculate that?

[/ QUOTE ]

He is talking about you holding JJ and your opponent holding AA, and then the probability that you flop exactly 1 jack with no ace is:

2/48 * 44/47 * 43/46 * 3 =~ 1 in 9.1 or 8.1-to-1

where we multiply by 3 since the jack can come on any of the 3 cards. We can also do this as

2*C(44,2)/C(48,3) =~ 1 in 9.1 or 8.1-to-1.

For 1 or 2 jacks and no ace this would be

[2*C(44,2) + 1*44]/C(48,3) =~ 1 in 8.9 or 7.9-to-1.

findingneema · #3 03-13-2007, 08:48 PM

Actually, the example is you have JJ, you're up against AA (and you saw the cards), and you will only get it all-in on the flop if it comes down Jxx with no ace. Of course, the math is the same.

BruceZ · #4 03-13-2007, 09:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, the example is you have JJ, you're up against AA (and you saw the cards), and you will only get it all-in on the flop if it comes down Jxx with no ace. Of course, the math is the same.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, I corrected the above post.

mdb · #5 03-14-2007, 09:17 AM

thanks