NL600 550bb stacks - multidrawer rivers 2nd nutstraight, he overpushes

[JKratzer]

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redargoe

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call

[Boquense]

Call, I think there's a much better chance of you actually winning this pot outright than him having 67.

[Reef]

sick cooler if he has 67

[RockSteady7]

A desperate donk might play a set like this - c/c, lead turn, and fearing the A got there shove and rep the 6. I hate how deep you are but I probably close my eyes and pray. Why the the call button so easy to click? Hope you took it down / chopped, this is a nightmarish scenario. btw, no knowledge of his ability to pull the trigger yet in 500 hands? obviously something like that might make this easier.

[catcher193]

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A desperate donk might play a set like this - c/c, lead turn, and fearing the A got there shove and rep the 6. I hate how deep you are but I probably close my eyes and pray. Why the the call button so easy to click? Hope you took it down / chopped, this is a nightmarish scenario. btw, no knowledge of his ability to pull the trigger yet in 500 hands? obviously something like that might make this easier.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[mrcoughman]

I don't see why people think the action necessitates him having 67 of hearts to have the nutz. i think the other suited combination are as likely considering, stack sizes (obv in actuality infinitely more likely given heros holding of the case 6). That being said I'm still calling the river.

[Snygaard]

I think he might as well have the lone 6 as 67. Add some bluffs and him trying to pull you of an A and this is a rather easy call IMO

[rebuyboy]

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redargoe

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fold

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[Proofrock]

If the flop was 5h 3h 2d instead of 5h 4h 2d, I would definitely call. It's harder to figure out here, though.

Preflop: Raise + call preflop with stacks this deep could really be anything. Any PP, suited connectors, suited aces, broadway cards, whatever. Any read about his MP opening range? How often had you been 3betting? Has he been calling 3bets light?

Flop: c/c -- would he float OOP w/AK here? Doubt it, but possible I guess. The fact that you have Ah and 6h rules out the nut flush draw and OESFD. Any PP and SCs 23-67 all at least call here, though the stronger holdings of these likely c-r.

Turn: The K is a scare card for a lot of your holdings (66-QQ). The king could have hit him, he could have had a strong hand before, or he could be using this opportunity to semibluff you off your hand with a straight or flush draw. His bet is pretty significant (more than 75% of the pot), which seems to be begging for a fold from your mid-pairs. On the other hand, it could be a bet from a set/2pair/straight hoping you had AK and spiked your king and worried you'd check behind. I'd figure his range here is 22+, 76, Khxh, or an unlikely flopped straight that wanted to wait for the turn before building the pot. 33,66-99, and KK are the most likely PPs, with 2 pair and 76 still part of the range. Also factor in random air bluffs of course.

River: Reraising preflop and flat-calling the turn makes it unlikely that you have a hand that can call a push, so he has to count on you folding a lot here. However, solid TAGs don't bluff $2800 into a $1200 pot with air very often, especially when that $2800 represents 460BB. Given how deep you are, he has to figure you're folding anything that isn't a straight, and you should even be folding the low straight. Given the play up to now, he can't figure you for a straight, though 76 may be in your range depending on your 3betting tendencies. Therefore he should be confident you're folding almost all of the time if he views you to be a competent player.

Your range after the turn call is a big flush draw (which missed, but you could have rivered the wheel), AK, a set (though really unlikely given the drawy nature of the board), or a mid PP that got stubborn and didn't believe the turn donk. 76 is also a slight possibility.

Is he good enough here to run a multistreet bluff with a huge river push with air? I doubt that in most players until I see it. However, his line doesn't make a lot of sense, as your range consists mostly of hands that he can get value out of but won't call a push. On the other hand, I don't know if this over-rides the TAG "OMG I rivered the nuts in a huge pot with huge stacks I PUSH" tendency. 76 is still very much in his range, though 66 is possible too.

Although the line looks bluffy and against the right opponent it could be a profitable play here with any two, most solid, TAG players (myself very much included) just don't push here without at least a six (more likely 76) -- mostly it happens in the heat of the moment and only afterwards do they realize their line doesn't get them paid off very often vs. their opponent's hand range.

Your image and history are important here, but with the info given I lean toward a puke and fold. The hand analysis can definitely support a call, but it's not one that I would make unless I'm against a Villain I know pretty well.

[NDHand]

For all the reasons mentionned above, I call and say aloud "Luck be a Lady"