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#1
03-12-2007, 09:40 PM
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I was going to checkraise the river but .... (200BBs deep)
... he beat me to it. Villain is some random guy, runs at 35/12 over 130 hands, aggression factor of 1,4. No major tangles. HE has limped a couple of times and I have raised him from button and won either pre or on the flop
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com BB ($1835.75) UTG ($1088) MP ($1042) Button ($1965) Hero ($2200) Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $10, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $50</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $40. Flop: ($110) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $75</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $150</font>, Hero calls $75. Turn: ($410) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $150</font>, Hero calls $150. River: ($710) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $1615 (All-In)</font>, Hero 
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#4
03-12-2007, 10:06 PM
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Re: I was going to checkraise the river but .... (200BBs deep)
It certainly looks like a full house hoping you hit the straight and make a crying call with it. Would he really openlimp on the button with 99 or 88? because if it is a house thats the hand you beat.
Tough spot. I think its close, but a call because a donkish played flush or straight cannot be excluded from his range.
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#5
03-12-2007, 10:06 PM
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Re: I was going to checkraise the river but .... (200BBs deep)
One combo of quads (but he wouldn't limp JJ on the button), 2 combos of JT (although looking back on his turn bet after he jams river like this, it looks like he has probably already boated by the turn), 6 combos of J9 , 6 combos of J8, 6 total combos of boats we beat, not gonna count straight flushes as I doubt the guy gets there in that fashion with those hands, and also pretty much discounting the possibility of a bluff in this fashion from this relatively passive seeming player.
Lets discount the JT as a sort of balance to also factor the occasional random hand we havent figured in yet that we beat, and the fact that it IS less likely. Also not gonna count quads. Thats 12 combos that beat us, and 6 that we beat. We are getting 1.44 to 1, so even not considering the fact that he is less likely to jam in this fashion with 888JJ or 999JJ than JJJxx, and less likely to limp 88/99 on the button than J9/J8, its still a fold. At first I was going to say call and let him rip your face off but the math doesn't lie. It would take QUITE a bit to sway it if you weigh everything appropriately.
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