Kinda deep, and kinda basic...

[Number27]

[ QUOTE ]
WHAT A DONKEY

[/ QUOTE ]

In retrospect, I love shoving. I never would have thought it up on my own; but versus our opponents range it really is a pretty awesome play. There is no way our opponent has AJ or a set on the flop here because those hands bet the turn a 90% of the time. I think his range has far more possibilities of Axs, AK/AQ, and a flush draw way more than KJ/QJ. Stacks are sufficiently deep that he might even fold a crappy J. There is no way a better Ace calls.

Anyway, I think it is an awesome play; and almost certainly better than calling. I only play 1000NL occasionally so I will leave it to the hsnl players to discuss; but in my humble opinion shoving > folding > calling.

I look forward to a better analysis of shoving merits...

[Equal]

Well if OP shoves, he has to win 33% of the time, assuming that villain wins when he calls.

I don't think Jx ever folds to a shove, simply because he cold-called pre-flop... how bad can his kicker be? I mean is the guy calling with J9s or J8s? Probably not.

But anyway, I think this is a tough call because of the J on the river. The combination of it the J on the flop, and weak/mid aces probably not valuebetting the pot on the river.

This was funny - playing around with Pokerstove and some ranges, I ended up stumbling on an EXACT BREAK-EVEN range:

Board: Ad Jc 2c 5s Jh

Hand 0: 33.333% { As8s }
Hand 1: 66.667% { KcQc, KJs, QJs, JTs, Tc9c, 9c8c }

So we have 3 combos of busted flushes plus 6 combos of Jx.

I suppose you might include big Ax hands in his range if you checking the river means he can exclude Jx from your hand range. I'm not sure what you might conclude from him insta-potting the river... from donks that usually is more likely a bluff than from good players.

[restrikt]

Call.

[Lefort]

I fold flop sometimes.

But as played, shove river to fold out AXc where X > 8. He's got a J here like never.

[iRock]

so your hand either loojs like a missed draw or a weak A. I think hed check behind an A if he is checking the turn and calling preflop. I think there is a good chance he has a straight, a counterfieted 2 pair, or a missed draw. I think this is a fold because if he was going to bluff a draw hed do it on the turn. I think its a fold but I'd make it a call every so often to keep them honest and for info if he's a reg.

[mperich]

dont shove yuck. if it was me i would consider calling ur shove with worse hands than a8 tho so maybe it could be for value

-Mike

[Kirkrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
dont shove yuck. if it was me i would consider calling ur shove with worse hands than a8 tho so maybe it could be for value

-Mike

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, pushing there never even occured to me, but I'm not sure I really see the merits. I can't expect him to bet the river often enough given how the hand played out to be really checking a huge hand that often, especially given stack sizes. I think I would get looked up here definitely by a J, and probably by better A's as well, with the occasionaly worse Ace as well.

Anyway, I almost timed out and called, he showed KTs for the missed gutshot and mhig. Thanks for your thoughts, all.

Kirk

[CallYNotRaise06]

ICE TREY:

"Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

shove.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


AHAHAHA"

"WHAT A DONKEY "


Durrrr:

"Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

shove.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



tht was my 1st thought too obv. "


this made me laugh.