Caesar's AC circuit event, flopped trips - postflop decisions.

[PennDisc]

Saturday at the $300 WSOP Circuit event in AC. T4000 starting stacks, and this hand is at the 200/400 level with 50 ante. This is the second hand after coming back from a break. On the first hand I knocked a player out after making a steal-raise with 73o and flopping the low 2-pair. So I don't have a tight table image at this point.

Villain in the hand has the most chips at the table with about 35k, and I have a little less than 30k, so he's the only one that can knock me out. He's played fairly tight and aggressive, but I've seen him make several open-limps in early position. He isn't prone to making a lot of bluffs and has shown down only big hands.

I think the table was 9-handed at the time of the hand.

Preflop:
Villain limps UTG, 3 folds, I limp with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], folds to SB who calls, BB checks.

Flop (Pot 2100): K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 checks, Villain bets 1500. I call, both blinds fold.

At this point I'm fairly certain that the villain wouldn't make this bet with a pair lower than 88, and with JJ/QQ he would have raised preflop, likely TT also. I don't read him for being likely to bet a flush draw multi-way on this board. So, I thought his most likely hands were KQ or KJ, followed by AA, TT, 99, or 88, with some possibility of a flush draw or even K8s. I hadn't seen him attempt a limp-reraise so maybe the AA should be discounted. Anyway, I felt I was way-ahead or way-behind against his most likely hands so I just called, additional weight in my mind given to the fact that we're the 2 big stacks and he's the only one that can bust me. If I raise and get 3-bet here I'll hate it. Comments?

Turn (Pot 5100): (K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villain bets 3000, I call.
The diamond hits and he still makes a semi-large bet. So I have to give the flush a little more weight and I have even more disincentive to playing a large pot now. Maybe it's even time to fold? I have outs against everything but K8 though.

River (Pot 11k): (K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain bets 4500, hero?
So I thought this made the hand very interesting. On the surface it seems really obvious to raise here, but I really gave it a lot of thought. Can he call my raise with anything that I beat? It seems that I'm splitting at best with any hand that can call the raise, and I will get my big stack busted in the even that he has K8. Plus, what of his range would even bet this river? Am I just overthinking this and it's still an obvious raise?

Comments on all streets appreciated. I've given my thought process, give me yours.

[arod18]

Obvious raise on the end. The calls on the flop and turn are okay, but you have to stick in a raise on the river.

[Bakes]

yea 11k seems about right. i like how you played this hand, i don't know if i can find a raise on any of the previous streets.

[Bond18]

Raise to 11000 with the obv intention of calling a shove.

[PennDisc]

Would you play it any differently if the stacks were deeper? I'm mostly a cash game player, and with 75bb's raising the river and getting pushed into here wouldn't be a big deal. But with stacks 200 bb's+ deep or something I feel like it'd be an obvious non-raise. What are your thoughts in this spot?

And still - what can he call with that my hand beats - flush or underboat has got to fold here right? Or just raise to 11k and hope he push-bluffs?

[Bakes]

even with 200bb i dont see how you can ever put him on K8 or 33

[Bakes]

and yes, u have the essential nuts and its hard to get paid of f with worse, but still, not raising here is criminal IMO.

[johnnyrocket]

maybe AA, when the river pairs he clealy didnt limp UTG with K8, this is the easiest river bet ever, if u dont bet here u shouldnt even play in tournies

[Fiksdal]

I think OP has a point. I agree that we are winning > 99.5% of the time here. However, the only hands that are calling a raise are splitting or tieing with us. So why would we do it?