Would You Buy This Stock? - Page 4

Traderx · #31 03-05-2007, 09:43 AM

We have a saying on Wall St.

Show me the chart and I'll show you the future.

David, If you'd like an expert opinion on the stock in question feel free to erase the symbol on the chart and email me the Daily and Weekly Charts.

depokerstar · #32 03-05-2007, 11:35 AM

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Dumb question.

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smbruin22 · #33 03-05-2007, 04:34 PM

there seems to be this huge presumption that it's some sort of information....

hard to explain but i think alot of stuff is based on knowing someone who has made a fortune at your golf club on technology stocks (like a venture capitalist) and he'll tell you about some company he saw at trade show about amazing product.

i don't think there's as much inside info out there as people think... i think it's more a matter of informed opinions from highly knowledgeable people. and it helps if the ultimate stock picker has great knowledge of a certain industry or at least geographically... i think people in atlanta make huge, huge money on home depot (or even coca-cola) from years ago... and i can think of amazing small caps from where i've lived that locals loaded up on before they became well-known. although i do think the market has become more efficient on this over the past 20 years.

Johnny Hughes · #34 03-09-2007, 12:10 PM

You don't give enough information. I see rich guys on TV pumping a stock. Maybe he tells everyone in Vegas his "secret" tip to talk the stock up.

Depending on his holdings and position in the stock, is he breaking the law?

You could take Two Plus Two public and cash in. Talk to a tax guy.

Johnny Hughes, Ph.D.

Phanekim · #35 03-09-2007, 07:58 PM

Come on David. Have you ever heard of trust but verify?

wiseheart · #36 03-10-2007, 01:10 AM

Despite the answer, I still say the buy matters little
about what the acquitance says, and more about its
fundamental value. Also, you said this guy was just
getting into the stock market, not that he had made
his money from it. Success in other places does not
necessarily translate to the market.

DON'T BUY, without research. Also, tripling means
nothing if you haven't sold the stock yet (assuming you
bought it)

I bought a stock two years ago at 1.50, it was at $6
6 months ago, but I didn't sell, and now it is $0.80

David Sklansky · #37 03-10-2007, 03:16 AM

Which was should his behavior have a great impact on my decision?

Fierce Lion7 · #38 03-11-2007, 12:56 AM

The EV is negative.

The reason is that it is beyond stupid to buy a stock because someone tells you to.

The fact that he is a millionaire is irrelevant. I know plenty of millionaires that can't invest in the stock market to save their lives.

The information that you can not share... it sounds like he may have an inside edge. That is also irrelevant. People manipulate stock prices on the short for a number of different reasons. He may even be playing YOU for the sucker.

If this is how you invest, I would suggest you buy some Mutual Funds and adopt a long-term approach. Oh, and do not not NOT not NOT not EVER try to speculate in options.

So when he told you about this stock, you checked the technical aspects of it. You also researched the history of the company and got at the very least a feel for the business at hand. Then you looked at the balance sheet.

Then you looked at the market in question, such as the competitors, the government regulations, "cousin" companies related to the stock, and what the insiders are doing?

I think that you are saying you did none of these things but you are going on something a friend said and you had a "feeling" about this and you tripled your initial investment.

Sorry for the tone of the post, Mr. Sklansky. But there is nothing more pain inducing to my ears then "A friend told me to buy XYZ because it is a sure thing". *Vomit*

Lion out.

David Sklansky · #39 03-11-2007, 01:17 AM

There is so much wrong with your post

"The EV is negative."

A random stock has a positive EV

"The reason is that it is beyond stupid to buy a stock because someone tells you to."

I'll agree that is probably somewhat accurate as a general rule

"The fact that he is a millionaire is irrelevant. I know plenty of millionaires that can't invest in the stock market to save their lives."

True again. Except that he was also a world class poker player and the combination is a strong indication of multi faceted talents.

"The information that you can not share... it sounds like he may have an inside edge. That is also irrelevant. People manipulate stock prices on the short for a number of different reasons. He may even be playing YOU for the sucker."

Didn't you read my post? He was a friend of mine. And he was obviously feeling guilty about walking away without mentioning the stock. He wasn't touting. And he wouldn't have behaved that way unless IN HIS MIND anyway the EV was WAY positive.

"If this is how you invest, I would suggest you buy some Mutual Funds and adopt a long-term approach. Oh, and do not not NOT not NOT not EVER try to speculate in options."

I don't think that even my biggest critics doubt that I could quickly learn to play options better than all but the most elite. I turned down mega money to do just that.

"So when he told you about this stock, you checked the technical aspects of it."

Please

"You also researched the history of the company and got at the very least a feel for the business at hand. Then you looked at the balance sheet."

You think there is information there not already taken into account by the market?

"Then you looked at the market in question, such as the competitors, the government regulations, "cousin" companies related to the stock, and what the insiders are doing?"

ditto

"I think that you are saying you did none of these things but you are going on something a friend said and you had a "feeling" about this and you tripled your initial investment."

It wasn't a "feeling". See my posts about adjusting evaluations when smart people are sure about something.

"Sorry for the tone of the post, Mr. Sklansky. But there is nothing more pain inducing to my ears then "A friend told me to buy XYZ because it is a sure thing". *Vomit*"

Agreed. But that's not what happened.

Fierce Lion7 · #40 03-11-2007, 02:52 AM

Fair enough.

When I asked about you looking up the details of a company you wanted to invest in you said...

"You think there is information there not already taken into account by the market?"

I will give a wishy-washy yes and no answer to your question. I am familiar with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. In a way, I am almost an Acolyte to it.

When all of the analysts in 1999 said to buy freakin' everything because it was a Bull Market, was that good advice?

As far as I know, the only folks I know that said it was a bubble at the time was IBD (Investors Business Daily), myself, and my Dad.

The reason I say I am an Acolyte to the above mentioned theory is I am of the school that the "market does what it does". So I should react accordingly. I do, but with research.

There are tens of thousands of companies listed in the NYSE, and you are right... most of them are profitable in the long term. Yet, many are not.

You ignored my question if you actually did research on the companies you would invest in...

The question is, do you?

I may have been incorrect in my initial post to your original question but I have to posit that at the very least basic research into companies you invest in had to enter into the equation.