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#1
03-10-2007, 05:59 AM
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100bb deep, fold bottom set?
to me, folding sets seemed has always seemed like folding kk pf. we all talk about it, but it's probably not something we should ever do. that said, should we find a fold here?
SB is 20/17/4.55 over 8840 hands. Most of these stats are datamined, but I've never seen him do something ridiculous. He's a winning multi-tabler. UTG+1 is 51/12/1.95 over 400 hands. I've just come to this table so I don't have a read on him. From what I can tell though, he seems to be a bit of a calling station. Full Tilt Poker No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $1/$2 6 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: $493.65 UTG+1: $1113.30 Hero: $193 Button: $357.20 SB: $482 BB: $86.90 Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $8</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 calls. Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($34, 4 players) SB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $22</font>, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $55</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls. Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($199, 3 players) <font color="#cc0000">SB bets $125</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $348</font>, Hero? 
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#3
03-10-2007, 06:37 AM
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Re: 100bb deep, fold bottom set?
NOOOOOOOO
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#4
03-10-2007, 06:38 AM
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Re: 100bb deep, fold bottom set?
87 makes sense if we want to put him on a hand you beat. He doesn't have JT. He might have T9...but I doubt it. He either has TT-QQ (and decided not to 3-bet), 87 and went for the checkraise (he assumed you'd c-bet), or 88/77. 99 is rather unlikely. Tough choice, but I'd call and expect to see 87 here more than 88/77 because he's putting you on a large overpair (which he beats) and not bottom set.
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#5
03-10-2007, 07:02 AM
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Re: 100bb deep, fold bottom set?
I think you're missing that two people (almost) got all-in on the turn before the action even got to hero. Also those two people are 250bbs deep, which might affect hero's line since people tend to be more cautious while deep and especially cautious multiway.
I probably still call here, but I imagine half of SSNL will say to fold and I won't really fault them.
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#7
03-10-2007, 07:19 AM
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Re: 100bb deep, fold bottom set?
[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1>SB>bottom set [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] NOOOOOOOO [/ QUOTE ]
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#8
03-10-2007, 07:19 AM
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Re: 100bb deep, fold bottom set?
wow, i am smashing the [censored] out of that flop after SB reraises and UTG+1 coldcalls. i think i would pretty much always shove the flop here given the action. if you are oversetted, so be it, but im charging the fishie in the middle to draw.
as played, yeah i think turn fold is acutally okay. you are gonna see 65 a LOT on UTG+1. SB im thinking 87, 77, 88, TT-QQ is his range. wouldnt expect to see anything else, but ive been surprised before.
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