Wynn 10k Poker Classic Hand

[Josh.]

i have a question for the donkament experts.

say minraising and shoving have the same cEV. if ZJ minraises and folds to a shove, he has ~11k if he loses and 32k if he wins. if he shoves, he has ~3k if he loses but 40k if he wins.

logic tells me that the situation favors minraising since he still has 100 bb if he loses which will be proportionally higher $EV compared to having 3k, than having 40k vs 32k.

is that a reason to potentially pass on a higher EV river shove because he'd have a much much much higher $EV presense in the tourney with 11k than 3k.

my only concern with shoving is that if he's sitting there with T6, and ZJ shoves, he's gotta worry about several different hands. T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9:club, 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 86, rivered 888, slowplayed 777. his action on all streets is obviously super strong and it's clearly not a good bluffing spot for ZJ. ZJ is clearly not using the 8 of diamonds to launch a crazy bluff that leaves his opponent with well over 2-1 to call. maybe that's giving this guy too much credit though. 3 of a kind is a good hand!

[Josh.]

[ QUOTE ]
josh,
i think that if all draws miss on the river, check to enduce bluffs is just as viable as straight value-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]


yeah you're probably right

[Josh.]

just posting this because i'm surprised how often he's full on the river just using a range of any 6 or 77

Board: 7c 6c 6h 2s 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.596% 23.60% 00.00% 84 0.00 { 77, A6s, K6s, Q6s, J6s, T6s, 96s, 86s, 76s, 62s+, A6o, K6o, Q6o, J6o, T6o, 96o, 86o, 76o, 62o+ }
Hand 1: 76.404% 76.40% 00.00% 272 0.00 { 54s }

[Josh.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
josh,
i think that if all draws miss on the river, check to enduce bluffs is just as viable as straight value-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]


yeah you're probably right

[/ QUOTE ]


though if you think about it, if he decides to check trips, he could just as easily crai with a boat. he'd be using the same logic that inducing bluffs gets more value than a value bet. there's soem psychology ("i'm not risking it getting checked through with my full house"), but aside from that i can't think of any reason why checking would be correct with 63 but not 777, since it's likely that no better hands check in either case, and all better ones bet. so it's only a question of whether (hands ZJ's bluffing with) > (hands ZJ might call with but not bet with like 99 or 98cc), and that's independent of villain's hand

[FreakDaddy]

Sometimes I have a bad habit of justifying my spectacularly intelligent designed plays, despite very solid counter reasoning. This seems like one of those hands.

I need to play more tournaments instead of grinding cash games.

[Eagles]

Pf is fine obv

I don't like the flop bet your betting into 4 people with a really weak draw you can only really be happy with 6 cards and even if you make a straight villain probably has a lot of redraws.

The turn is close I think you can call but you also probably need to make a move here some of the time.

The river is a shove I think it will be difficult for him to fold because your hand is disguised pretty well. I mean the only draws that got there where 9cTc or 45 so I think if you shove and do some of that stuff irie talked about you can induce a call from a worse hand.

[nath]

I haven't thought about it a whole lot yet, but I'm pretty sure I agree with sheets (especially the part about how he'll have air a large % of the time here and why).

[Imagethegod]

sheets is correct, but I strongly feel the turn is a fold. What if this guy is a complete donk, because from the way he played this hand he seems pretty bad. If so, the fancy plays you're setting up for the river will mean absolutely nothing.

And no matter what he has here, his line sucks

[ZeeJustin]

Sheets, this isn't an $11 Rebuy tournament. This is a live 10k event.

Do you really think a seemingly solid player is going to checkraise the flop. Double barrel the turn. Triple barrel the river, and then 3-bet reraise all-in over an obvious value raise very often?

If you think that is a likely play, you haven't played many live tournaments.

Also, he has a boat a lot more often than 5% of the time here.

[shaundeeb]

if you think his boat % is soo high you should be folding the turn but you knew that.