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#1
03-08-2007, 10:05 PM
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99 - Overpair on monotone board vs. LAG
CO was LAGish at 36/19/2.3 over 47 hands. With how agro he is, I figure his range is wide since he could be stealing. On the flop, I figure he's aggressive enough to be raising a draw as well as a made hand (which includes a bunch of hands I am beating and some with tons of outs). Being in position, does this look ok on a reasonably safe turn card or should I be more apt to 3bet the flop and go from there despite there being a lot of things he can represent depending on the turn?
Full Tilt, 1/2 Full Ring Hero is on the Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Preflop, 9 Players: 5 folds, <font color="red"> CO raises </font>, <font color="red">Hero 3bets</font>, 2 folds, CO calls. Flop, 7.5SB: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] CO checks,<font color="red"> Hero bets</font>,<font color="red"> CO raises</font>, Hero calls. Turn, 5.75BB: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="red">CO bets</font> , <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, CO calls. River, 9.75BB: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] CO checks, Hero checks. 
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#2
03-09-2007, 12:52 AM
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Re: 99 - Overpair on monotone board vs. LAG
I am not sure of the turn 3-bet. It would hinge on whether our hand is strong or marginal and 99 seems to fall near the boundary.
There is an article in this months magazine that deals with this Here, see the section "Responding to Check-Raises on the Flop". He is talking about higher stakes but I think it could apply here.
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#4
03-09-2007, 01:42 AM
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Re: 99 - Overpair on monotone board vs. LAG
[ QUOTE ]
you missed a value-bet on the river. [/ QUOTE ] Really? I was tempted to bet the river, but due to his preflop raise, I was expecting A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]x or a missed club draw that wouldn't call my bet more often than a 98/76 type hand.
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#6
03-09-2007, 08:27 AM
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Re: 99 - Overpair on monotone board vs. LAG
I'm not so much thinking Ax for CO's range, but more missed draws that won't call a river bet. With his high PFR stat, I think his range is pretty wide and would include some KJ/KT/JT hands with a club that won't call a bet. I don't think he's calling my turn raise with a naked Ax unless it's with the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I figure his range is wide enough to have some 98s or 76s or hands of that sort that would call a bet on the river though. Since I took a strongish line, I could also see him checking better hands to me on the river (QxT[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and such) since he may be fearing I have something big.
I see your reasoning to bet the river though, and if I do get raised, it's a pretty easy fold.
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