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#1
03-08-2007, 02:55 AM
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HOTel cORAL esSEX
Im more of a marketing guy than a math guy and I need a few clarifications.
NLH turn decisions 1)pot 600 villain moves allin 200 you cover you are 20% to win at river therefore fold because it decreases variance? T? 2)same situation except villain's all in bet varies randomly around 200 with a normal distribution. with an infinite N I can call or fold with 0 ev. T? 3)Turn Pot is 600 I am 90% sure that that I will win only 20% of rivers and 10% I will win 100% of rivers. What bet can I call with 0 ev? J 
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#2
03-08-2007, 03:14 AM
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Re: HOTel cORAL esSEX
1) It's EV-neutral... whether you call will depend on outside factors like whether you want to reduce variance, whether you think he'll rebuy and whether you want him in the game... in a tourney there is value in busting him out so most people would be calling.
2) Yes, but the alternate strategy of waiting to see what he bets, calling if under 200, and folding if over 200 would have positive EV. 3) You are, in effect, winning 28% of rivers, and therefore willing to call when you are offered ~5:2 odds, i.e., a 400 bet to you.
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