March Low Content Thread.

Shabamabam · #1 03-05-2007, 06:01 PM

I've been on super mega life and poker tilt as of lately.

Last couple of days were a kick in the teeth. I've been playing horrendously and I know it.

franknagaijr · #2 03-06-2007, 09:38 PM

Pursuant to the conversation of O8 MTTs being hard to crack despite being chock full of dead money.

Can anybody rationally explain this player's choices?

PokerStars Game #8774265620: Tournament #44300649, $8.00+$0.80 Omaha Hi/Lo Pot Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2007/03/06 - 20:19:56 (ET)
Table '44300649 15' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: FrankNagaiJr (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: makeyasweat (1490 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 3: relyk (1450 in chips)
Seat 4: REDFIR (1480 in chips)
Seat 5: youngfellaa (1470 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 6: cashryders22 (1596 in chips)
Seat 7: HeyItsMau (1480 in chips)
Seat 8: timberline68 (1524 in chips)
Seat 9: whosierdaddy (1510 in chips)
HeyItsMau: posts small blind 10
timberline68: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [Kd Qd Kc 8h]
whosierdaddy: folds
FrankNagaiJr: calls 20
makeyasweat: folds
relyk: folds
REDFIR: calls 20
youngfellaa: folds
cashryders22: folds
HeyItsMau: calls 10
timberline68: checks
*** FLOP *** [4c 2c Kh]
HeyItsMau: checks
timberline68: checks
FrankNagaiJr: bets 80
REDFIR: folds
HeyItsMau: calls 80
timberline68: calls 80
*** TURN *** [4c 2c Kh] [Js]
HeyItsMau: checks
timberline68: checks
FrankNagaiJr: bets 320
HeyItsMau: calls 320
timberline68: calls 320
*** RIVER *** [4c 2c Kh Js] [Qc]
HeyItsMau: folds
timberline68: bets 420
FrankNagaiJr: calls 420
*** SHOW DOWN ***
timberline68: shows [4d As 7d Tc] (HI: a straight, Ten to Ace)
FrankNagaiJr: mucks hand
timberline68 collected 2120 from pot
No low hand qualified
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2120 | Rake 0
Board [4c 2c Kh Js Qc]
Seat 1: FrankNagaiJr mucked [Kd Qd Kc 8h]
Seat 2: makeyasweat folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: relyk folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: REDFIR folded on the Flop
Seat 5: youngfellaa folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: cashryders22 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: HeyItsMau (small blind) folded on the River
Seat 8: timberline68 (big blind) showed [4d As 7d Tc] and won (2120) with HI: a straight, Ten to Ace
Seat 9: whosierdaddy folded before Flop (didn't bet)

I dunno · #3 03-07-2007, 12:28 AM

He was obviously planning on bluffing you on the river.

EffenDolts · #4 03-07-2007, 12:18 PM

Shabam, I feel your pain.

I have never run that bad in poker, but I have had three losing streaks in video poker that were a lot bigger than that, i.e., more than $50K. It really sucks losing amounts of money that many people would consider a good year's income. I get really jealous of my friends who are on winning streaks while I am pissing away benjamins by the handful. However, I usually don't have to blame myself. It's just bad luck when you lose in VP while if you only play games where you have the best of it.

In real poker, it is easy to convince yourself that you are at least EV-neutral when you are really a big money dog. I had my worst poker session last weekend. It started out with some bad beats, but ended up with some tilty play and more river suckouts and losses on what were clearly marginal calls or bets. I was really suprised how bad I played toward the end of the session. I hope I can get back to my A game the next time out, and I can see that you recognize that you need to get yourself off tilt, too.

The first step is admitting the problem.

Cheers,

Effen

niss · #5 03-07-2007, 12:27 PM

Serious question ... how do you ever have the "best of it" in video poker? I know there is some material out saying that you can win playing VP, but I don't understand how it's any different than a slot machine. Thanks in advance for responding.

davebreal · #6 03-07-2007, 12:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Serious question ... how do you ever have the "best of it" in video poker? I know there is some material out saying that you can win playing VP, but I don't understand how it's any different than a slot machine. Thanks in advance for responding.

[/ QUOTE ]

only certain machines are +EV, depends on branding. game's main profit lies in royal flush cumulative jackpots.

EffenDolts · #7 03-07-2007, 01:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Serious question ... how do you ever have the "best of it" in video poker? I know there is some material out saying that you can win playing VP, but I don't understand how it's any different than a slot machine.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are some video poker machines that are programmed like slot machines (predetermined outcomes), but these types of machines are not legal in NV and NJ. Therefore, every paytable has an associated optimal strategy and optimal EV for each hand. You can even create strategies for new games automatically:
http://www.zamzone.com/TomSki/VPSM.asp
As the paytable improves, the EV has to improve. If the paytable is good enough, the house edge eventually goes negative.

Video poker games in AC and NV typically have optimal returns of 92% to (rarely) 101% for fixed paytables. The first thing to look for is games with good paytables and cashback. Cashback can range from near zero to 4% in extreme cases.

Second, some games have multiple modes with different returns which are on average favorable to the house. These games can be wonged (played only when in favorable modes, only). My favorite wonging game is in a +2.5% mode 6% of the time.

Finally, the returns on progressives can be arbitrarily high. A 4000-coin Royal flush is worth 2% expected return on a jacks or better game. If the progressive payout is 12000 coins, this adds about 4% to the return. My wife and I once played a progressive which had a return of 107% when we started and rose to 113% by the time she hit the progressive. At the end, we we had an edge of $1300 per hour. The frequency of such progressive opportunities is exponentially relate to the meter advance rate. The casino has since cut the meter rate on that progressive. We used to have an opportunity to play that progressive about once a weeek with a positive EV. We have not had an opportunity to play it in the 14 months since the meter rate was cut.

VP opportunities are drying up fast in AC. I used to play in 10 different AC casinos on a regular basis. Now, only 3 casinos have good VP plays. There are still plenty of breakeven plays (with cashback) that you might consider. If you add comps to a breakeven game, you can actually come out ahead. I.e., you can still find 9/6 Jacks or better (99.54% return) with 0.4% cashback and maybe 0.5% comp rate in AC.

Effen

davebreal · #8 03-07-2007, 02:04 PM

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
davebreal: $401.20
UTG+1: $192
MP1: $446.20
MP2: $542
CO: $1486.15
Button: $178.40
SB: $474.70
BB: $483

Pre-flop: (8 players) davebreal is UTG with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
davebreal raises to $12, 3 folds, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($30, 2 players)
davebreal bets $20, CO calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($70, 2 players)
davebreal checks, CO bets $35, davebreal raises to $175, CO calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($420, 2 players)
davebreal is all-in $194.2, CO calls.

Results:
Final pot: $808.4
davebreal showed 3s Ah Ad Js
CO mucks 4s 9s 3d 2d

Gone Forever · #9 03-07-2007, 04:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pursuant to the conversation of O8 MTTs being hard to crack despite being chock full of dead money.

Can anybody rationally explain this player's choices?

Seat 8: timberline68 (big blind) showed [4d As 7d Tc] and won (2120) with HI: a straight, Ten to Ace
Seat 9: whosierdaddy folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[/ QUOTE ]

Who cares what he was thinking?? There wasn't a hand he could have beat until the river. That's that delicious dead money you were talkin about. Mmmmmmmmm. Dead moneeeey.

That's why this game is the future. People just don't get it.

G O N E F O R E V E R

Gone Forever · #10 03-07-2007, 04:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
davebreal: $401.20
UTG+1: $192
MP1: $446.20
MP2: $542
CO: $1486.15
Button: $178.40
SB: $474.70
BB: $483

Pre-flop: (8 players) davebreal is UTG with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
davebreal raises to $12, 3 folds, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($30, 2 players)
davebreal bets $20, CO calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($70, 2 players)
davebreal checks, CO bets $35, davebreal raises to $175, CO calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($420, 2 players)
davebreal is all-in $194.2, CO calls.

Results:
Final pot: $808.4
davebreal showed 3s Ah Ad Js
CO mucks 4s 9s 3d 2d

[/ QUOTE ]

HIIIIGH FIIIVE!

Let me guess, this guy had 4332 or maybe K932? Please tell me he didn't just have a flush. Either way, I think I need to accelerate my jump in limits. Lol.

G O N E F O R E V E R