Top Two Gone Wrong

Trencherman · #1 03-02-2007, 09:55 PM

Assume a standard online $10/$20 game (6 handed) with no reads. Is there any value in a turn bet, and can I do anything but call the river versus an unknown? Almost every reasonable holding seems to have made it, although I did check-behind the turn. What's my line if I bet and get check-raised on the turn?

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero raises, MP calls, SB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP folds, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: (4 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero ???

HIV · #2 03-03-2007, 03:17 PM

Gotta bet turn, any worse 2 pair is calling.
as played, call river

Nietzsche · #3 03-04-2007, 07:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Gotta bet turn, any pair is calling.
as played, call river

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

Trencherman · #4 03-06-2007, 02:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Gotta bet turn, any worse 2 pair is calling.

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I'm not convinced betting the turn is best. I do think it's closer, however, if Hero can find a fold at some point when check-raised. Surely checking behind here is optimal against some player types?

wackjob · #5 03-06-2007, 01:06 PM

not betting the turn is really bad. the only question should have been what should you do when you bet the turn and were raised.

Trencherman · #6 03-06-2007, 02:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
not betting the turn is really bad. the only question should have been what should you do when you bet the turn and were raised.

[/ QUOTE ]
What if we can assume the remaining villain is decent or tightish? What is he just calling with here? Is a lone paired ten or jack calling a bet on the turn and another on the river? If not, then it seems Hero is only getting valuable calls from worse two pair hands - many of which are likely to be played more aggressively preflop or on the flop - and non-nut flush draws (almost always pairs plus a spade). On the other hand, any queen or flush (and the occasional bluff or semi-bluff) will make Hero pay 3 big bets to show down or 2 to see the river. As I said before, being able to fold top two on the river after a turn check-raise makes a turn bet much more attractive. Still, checking the turn and getting 1 or 2 bets in on the river seems reasonable.

wackjob · #7 03-06-2007, 02:07 PM

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What if we can assume the remaining villain is decent or tightish? What is he just calling with here? Is a lone paired ten or jack calling a bet on the turn and another on the river? If not, then it seems Hero is only getting valuable calls from worse two pair hands - many of which are likely to be played more aggressively preflop or on the flop - and non-nut flush draws (almost always pairs plus a spade). On the other hand, any queen or flush (and the occasional bluff or semi-bluff) will make Hero pay 3 big bets to show down or 2 to see the river. As I said before, being able to fold top two on the river after a turn check-raise makes a turn bet much more attractive. Still, checking the turn and getting 1 or 2 bets in on the river seems reasonable.

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nothing here is as bad as giving a 1pair or two pair hand that has a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] a free card. bet the turn, then decide what your play is if raised.

Trencherman · #8 03-06-2007, 03:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
nothing here is as bad as giving a 1pair or two pair hand that has a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] a free card. bet the turn, then decide what your play is if raised.

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Don't the two pair hands seem extremely unlikely given the SB's pre-flop and flop play? The most likely of these going unraised preflop is JT, which almost always plays more aggressively on such a flop. Furthermore, the only two pair hands with a flush draw are precisely those with the T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] that have also been played extremely passively.

Thus, the most likely hands seem to be weak pairs with very few outs that may not be calling anyway, pairs with a non-nut flush draw (the hands we want to charge), and powerful hands that Hero will still collect multiple river bets from when he checks behind and catches.

By my calculations, Hero is only about 11% to win when behind and about 74% versus the pair + flush draw combinations. What Villain's range gives Hero +EV from getting 1 bet in as a 74% favorite (and then possibly folding top two on the river when a spade hits) and putting 2 bets in when Hero is just 11% to win (and again folding top two when the river bricks)? Are you assuming that the pair + flush draw hands probabilistically make up the vast majority of Villain's holdings?