AQs late in party 300k

Morrek · #1 03-06-2007, 04:14 AM

Villain has been pretty tight, not super rocky or anything but I haven't seen him show down any bad hands. I've been splashing around a little but nothing crazy.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t12000 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 (t74903)
Hero (t211924)
CO (t186676)
Button (t8348)
SB (t363864)
BB (t243451)
UTG (t167018)
UTG+1 (t147762)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises to t30000, 3 folds, BB calls [t243251] , Hero? (180k to me)

Bond18 · #2 03-06-2007, 04:51 AM

Hero folds. He's not shoving AJ here with the read you've given anywhere near often enough for this to be +EV. I think his range is TT+/AK and the odds aren't there.

Soulman · #3 03-06-2007, 04:59 AM

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.539% 28.53% 13.01% 64484700 29404230.00 { AQs+ }
Hand 1: 58.461% 45.45% 13.01% 102730968 29404230.00 { TT, AKs, AKo }

Hero is getting 1.6:1 pot odds, with 1.4:1 odds vs this range. I think you can say that KK/AA is a smaller part of his range most of the time as well...so oddswise, this looks like a call to me against that range.

Bond18 · #4 03-06-2007, 05:22 AM

Soulman is JJ/QQ included in your calculations there? the TT doesn't have a + after it.

Soulman · #5 03-06-2007, 05:30 AM

Bond, lol no it isn't. Would probably to you know, read the numbers before I post them :/

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.327% 54.93% 06.40% 259606776 30223314.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 38.673% 32.28% 06.40% 152542500 30223314.00 { AQs+ }

I.e. exactly 1.6:1, meaning pot odds = odds. Gah...given that, I probably fold since I'm so insanely +EV vs the field (...).

WarDekar · #6 03-06-2007, 05:33 AM

With 15BB still left you can afford to fold this I think, borderline.

registrar · #7 03-06-2007, 05:47 AM

I think we can put 99 into his range and with the slight possibility of a cheeky resteal we can say calling would be +EV. However, for me, this is one of those times when I would fold because I'm *never* actually ahead.

Morrek · #8 03-06-2007, 06:47 AM

I folded, no idea what he had. I think it's a good fold because as someone said im never ahead. And I really try to minimize situations where I'm flipping or behind for my entire stack unless I really have to.

betgo · #9 03-06-2007, 11:48 AM

This is a pretty easy call, given the position you raised from. I think it is a mistake to assign a tight range to villain. You sometimes see a straight resteal here.

registrar · #10 03-06-2007, 11:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty easy call, given the position you raised from. I think it is a mistake to assign a tight range to villain. You sometimes see a straight resteal here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you very rarely see a straight resteal on Party. You can't rule it out entirely but this is usually a ranges question. Calling is +EV, I'm sure, but this is the big Party Sunday and the standard sucks. There are 'better spots'

I would only call here if BB has some reason to play back at me.