2+2 AI Prop Betting

[llabb]

With all of the AI discussion and a whole separate forum this year, I'm surprised there's been a lot of talk and virtually no side betting.

WSEX and Intrade markets are great and all, but it's only a market on the winner. Only 1 person can win, and the rest are just short-term fluctuations you have to time right when to buy and sell. Much more interesting imo are the enormous variety of prop wagers you can make. Intrade has an elimination market on who will get sent home each week, but there's not much action on it currently.

So this is a thread for 2+2'ers to propose prop bets, settle odds here or via PM, then confirm the final wagers here. Funds can be held by a trusted 3rd party, perhaps a mod, or exchanged on Matchbook or Intrade. Use your imagination, and I'm sure you can find wagers that seem +EV to you and seem +EV to the other side. A few starters below, including some in quotes that have been proposed elsewhere but not gotten any action:


1) Bet on one person to be eliminated that week.

2) Bet on parlays of people to be eliminated (can be 2-4 people until Top 12 week, must get all right).

3) Last longers between two contestants.

4) "Pick any 3 singers right now to win Idol. I'll take the everyone else. Even Money." From here.

5) "Once they reach the top 12, how many men will drop before a single female is eliminated? I think it could go as low as 9 contestants before a female's eliminated. Would be an interesting betting line..." From here.

6) What place will be the highest finishing male end up in.

7) Who will VFTW's next candidate be.

8) Will Antonella and/or Sanjaya make the Top 12?

9) How many more weeks in a row will Melinda be at the top of the market? (And when Lakisha or someone else displaces her, how many weeks for that contestant?)

10) Who will be at the top of Dial Idol this week?


Tons more ideas out there, these are just some starters. Let's see some action!

[thing85]

InTrade has a market for who will be voted off each week.

[llabb]

Yes, that was originally noted in the OP, and it is something that I do, although there is little action currently. But many here do not use Intrade, but might be interested in prop betting on the eliminations. I encourage them to use Intrade, and if not, then prop bet.

Also, that was only 1 of 10 starting suggestions. There are tons of ways to do this, and I enjoy the more exotic ones. I don't expect this thread to surge with offers immediately, but as people make their stances clear in the discussion threads, it should lead to interesting prop situations. So as the season goes on, hopefully this will fill with offers and actual wagers.

Btw, as a side note, I make money in the overall markets to win and be eliminated, but I do the more interesting props for fun, and because I think I have an edge but maybe do not. I took a couple prop bets with 2+2'ers last season, and I had a losing record. Ended up paying out money to Performify, the Sports Betting mod. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Also tried to negotiate some other props with other posters and proposed a couple which they considered but turned down. Good thing for me, since those would have lost also. That's part of my motivation as well - I had a losing prop season last year, and want to hopefully turn it around this year!

[llabb]

Moneyshot and I have both agreed to a prop on pick 3 vs the field. I am picking 3 contestants to win, and he is taking the field to win. I am taking Lakisha, Melinda, and Chris Sligh to win, and he gets everyone else. We are doing it for $300, and I am giving him +105 odds.

So if Lakisha, Melinda, or Chris Sligh win AI this year, he pays me $300.
If anyone else wins, I pay him $315.

[Analyst]

[ QUOTE ]


9) How many more weeks in a row will Melinda be at the top of the market? (And when Lakisha or someone else displaces her, how many weeks for that contestant?)



[/ QUOTE ]

What odds will you give me on Melinda going wire-to-wire (well, from here on) as the market favorite?

[ShivasIrons]

What are you planning to do with the $300 llabb? Easy money. I think there is close to a 90% chance that the winner will come from the group of Lakisha, Melinda, Chris S. and Blake. I don't see anyone else having a real shot. Maybe Sundance, but not a great chance he can be consistent enough to go all the way.

[thing85]

90% chance? I'd say it's more like a 65-75% chance that it comes from one of those 4, still making this bet a good deal.

[llabb]

[ QUOTE ]
What are you planning to do with the $300 llabb? Easy money. I think there is close to a 90% chance that the winner will come from the group of Lakisha, Melinda, Chris S. and Blake. I don't see anyone else having a real shot. Maybe Sundance, but not a great chance he can be consistent enough to go all the way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like my side of the action, which is why I took it, but you're overvaluing the top if you think that adding one more guy to that mix makes it 90%. Even the WSEX markets, which are overvaluing the top of the market already, are not that high, and are priced for a more realistic shot of about 65% for those 4.

If you want action the other way, PM me, and I'll think about what odds I'd be willing to give.

[moneyshot]

Moneyshot and I have both agreed to a prop on pick 3 vs the field. I am picking 3 contestants to win, and he is taking the field to win. I am taking Lakisha, Melinda, and Chris Sligh to win, and he gets everyone else. We are doing it for $300, and I am giving him +105 odds.

So if Lakisha, Melinda, or Chris Sligh win AI this year, he pays me $300.
If anyone else wins, I pay him $315.

Ok

[ShivasIrons]

I said close to 90% and I think that is more correct than 65%. I don't see a substantial threat from another person. Let me think on it.