$16 - AJs on the bubble

[DeathbySuckout]

CO is 2p2, and SnG Wiz says this is a fold, even if he is pushing ATC. Is this a bad call?


PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t400 with t25 antes (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t5980)
Hero (t1765)
SB (t1465)
BB (t4290)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red">CO raises to t5955 (All-in)</font>, Hero calls t1740 (All-in)

[Kevin8423]

If CO is shoving very often, I would say this is always a call, as you probably will be faced with you on BB with his shove from SB in a few hands and you'll have less chips and most likely a worse hand. If this is one of few raises then I would say definitley fold and try to shove over the blinds in another spot.

Do you have any other information on how CO has been playing besides that hes 2p2?

[recondite7]

yeah bad call no need for this call you are third in chips it's only 60% at best you survive and double up here.

Simple rule if it's push any two cards and it's still a not call then don't call

[Joe Tex]

I prob call here but I think that is def a mistake. When are the blinds going up? This could make a difference.

[Kevin8423]

You both say its a mistake, but what situation will arise in the next few hands that will be better than this? With blinds hitting us before the other short stack we should be blinded out first, so unless we are going to foldbot and hope he gets it in and loses, why are we folding this?

I think this is almost entirely dependant on how the CO is playing on the bubble.

[DeathbySuckout]

I would never thought of calling this if CO was an unknown, or I had a bigger stack. But i figured he was pushing any two, and thought I was ahead, and if he kept owning the bubble, I would have a hard time keeping up. In this spot, if I fold, the other shorty doesn't normally know how tight he should be, and calls more often than he should. That either puts me ITM, or way behind. A lot of times this would be the best hand I will see, if the other short stack doubles up, and I get caught way behind.

But, as recondite7 pointed out, I'm 60% at best. I can see how it might be best to fold this. I just didn't know why it was so bad when it looked so pretty.

[Kevin8423]

But my point is that the search for a &gt;60% situation will have our stack much smaller than it is currently, where a double up will simply get us back to a situation similar to where we are currently. If we double here we are in great shape.. a double later still sucks.

Are we folding hoping that the other short stack is an unlucky donk that will either get his chips all in in a bad situation, or that he will just get unlucky and lose a flip? This seems like a poor way to play this out.

[tafokints]

Hmmmm, if blinds are raising to 250/500 soon then in a matter of two hands half his stack is going into the middle due to blinds. Although, I feel uneasy about the call, I usually make it if CO is pushing many hands, which he probably did to get to 5k.

If you don't call this one, you have two hands until 1/3 of your stack is in and then 1/2 your stack is gone by your SB which in turn leads to a situation where you're pushing any two into the BB, which the BB will auto call. I honestly don't think hero will have a better spot then a/j against a fairly loose (assuming) big stack.

If blinds were 100/200 or 150/300, it's a fold. With a 4xBB stack and antes too, this is probably the best spot you have.

Most of the time i see lower Aces (2-1 or 3-1 fav) and sometimes kings (3-2).

Even if you fold this, and SB somehow get's knocked out eventually due to the blinds. You're going to be crippled further by blinds in a couple hands which pretty much guarantees a 3rd place finish unless you get a couple of double ups. If you win the A/J hand you're going to be in decent position for first with 4k chips from blinds, antes, and the double up. I personally think a 60-40 is alot better than a 40-60 or even a 35-65 situation later on when it reaches your BB.

[taipan168]

Not sure why SNG Wiz said this was -EV even if CO is pushing 100%. I ran this through SNGPT, and it's +EV provided that he's shoving with 54% or wider.

If CO is 2+2 and has been shoving a lot on the bubble, I call this. His shoving range is easily wider than 54%, in fact if he knows how to pwn the bubble as the big stack then shoving 100% or close to is correct for him here.

[Finnisher]

This is really close if CO is pushing close to ATC. You have a bigger stack than SB and he's on your left. Altho CO will probably push when he's button. If you fold SB will probably call with a pretty wide range but he probably won't call if you call. If I was sure CO is pushing ATC I'd probably call but if not I'd fold. If he's pushing ATC I think calling or folding are about equal.

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure why SNG Wiz said this was -EV even if CO is pushing 100%.

[/ QUOTE ]
Because SNGWiz calculates it with SB's and BB's calling ranges too. SB and BB will call with whatever range you give them for calling and overcalling. SNGPT gives the pot to CO if you fold and that's way off in this situation.