Going against Shania (Theorish)

[Isura]

Usually when good players a bet or take a certain line, they do so with a certain range of hands. But certainly against weaker players it can often be right to make the most optimal play in a vacuum. Either because they aren't thinking about the game on as high of a level, or they simply won't stay in the game long enough to matter. So we make the optimal play and hope to get their money first. But, how often is it correct to deviate from the standard move against people who you will play again.

The following hand I posted recently from the Party 5/10, against a somewhat nitty regular, Goku. Stacks were 1700 and he opened in the CO. A loose SB called and I squeezed with T9o (he is kind of nitty postflop, but opens a lot in LP). Only the CO called and the flop was a beautiful T93r.

The pot was 300, and I made my standard bet of 240. This player is either going to give me action with say JJ+/33 and probably fold most everything else. But someone in that thread suggested open pushing against him, and it kind of intrigued me. My hand is certainly best here, but there are a lot of cards that will either kill my action, let him improve, or force me to slowdown even though I will still be ahead often. He is a tight player, and will certainly not call down 3 barrels with an unimproved JJ-QQ, and may even get away from KK-AA if the board gets ugly since we really don't have any history. But what about open pushing? I would think that it does not show as much strength as 3 barreling here, and it is such an unusual play in this game. I don't think that pushing is as strong a play with a set, because our hand is much less vulnerable, and it is dangerous with bottom set because his calling range is much more weighted towards 99/TT simply because there are more combos of those hands.

He is a regular in this game, but this was the first session that we were playing together. So finally, if we are going to be playing a lot in the future, how do you think that pushing is going to effect future hands if he either calls or folds? How will this effect my play in reraised pots against the other players?

[DJ Sensei]

I think a shove here with T9 is interesting, but not great. Basically in this spot T9 = AA, and while he won't put you on a set when you openshove, he may put you on AA. I dont think he'll call with much.

I think you're better off making your standard bet, and going from there. Its always good to back up the lines you often bluff with with strong hands as well.

[Overfloater]

he will be like "mmm 5x pot overbet... probably not a bluff I muck"

[IHateCats]

I think this line is far more likely to be a success at 10/20 or up than at 5/10. Most tight 5/10 players default instinct is to err on the side of tight vs overbets and correctly so, most of their 5/10 opponents won't massively overbet on semibluffs and/or air as well as some of the time with the nuts. That is a more common move at sh games over 10/20.

There is still some metagame value here as you will definitely plant the seed that you bullied him out with AK , KQ or QJ, which could have value if you catch any more cards soon, you'll be more likely to get paid off on any overbets. I guess it depends on how you think he'll play KK and QQ here, if he'll call a normal 80% pot bet here, it's probably not worth the push where you might scare him out, especially as there aren't any flush draws out there so there are only a few straight cards to worry about besides the 3. Additionally, going slow does give you the chance to get away from it if he pushes back and is only the type to push back with a set as unlikely as that is here. If there are some very aggro players at the table, especially ones that don't know you there is metagame value vs them as well. So all taken in all im not so humble opinion there is only enough metagame value here if you play a very good ultra-lag game and the table situation (very deep stacks and tighter players who will still pay too much for big pp and sets) suits this. If so and you run good this might be a very good play, if not, you're probably tossing a few hundred bb away if he has KK or QQ and is seeing if you will slow down after getting called.

[Tempest122]

Unless your going to be incorporating overbet pushes with a relatively wide range in the future I do not understand the value of this play. Personally I think open shoving looks stronger than just making a 3/4 pot c-bet.

[Jinx]

if that is true the is open shoving here with JQ good?
this post was directed at overfloater

[Christophers]

I'm a big fan of straying from Shania vs particular opponents, especially donks and those you're unlikely to play with again.

I don't particularly like the open shove here though. He's sane enough not to call with a hand like JJ but he'll definitely call a 2/3 pot bet with it on the flop. Then probably shove most turns I guess?

[Isura]

I have been experimenting with overbets in this game, but mostly on the river against regulars that put themselves in extremely exploitable spots. But yeah, this guy probably folds QQ/JJ since he isn't beating much expect for a bluff and this is the first time that I've done this.

[Hindsight2020]

i'd like it a lot more on a two tone flop

[Hindsight2020]

[ QUOTE ]
There is still some metagame value

[/ QUOTE ]
I really think that this is probably the most important part of the hand

thing is though, due to the fact that they are so much more likely to fold, i think the best way to start presenting this play is with a semi-bluff