What could this be? - NL25

GrinningBuddha · #1 03-02-2007, 03:47 PM

Villain is a 24/12, likes to call raises in position. How often is my hand going to be good here? What do you think is his most likely holding?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($29.55)
BB ($27.38)
Hero ($23.15)
MP ($63.65)
Villain ($26.10)
Button ($70.34)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, Villain calls $1, 2 folds, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($3.10) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.25, Villain calls $2.25, BB folds.

Turn: ($7.60) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $6.5, Villain raises $22.85 (All-In), Hero ??

allaboutmyfetti · #2 03-02-2007, 03:51 PM

9T, JQ, JT, JK of hearts, JJ (less likely), 88, 33, 44

Warteen · #3 03-02-2007, 03:52 PM

This line from an average villain looks like a set. Occasionally it will be a bluff or a jack.

SCBielski · #4 03-02-2007, 03:55 PM

What kind of AF are we dealing with here? Also, has our villain capable of making a play or not? This looks like a standard set but often times a tricky opponent will use this line to represent a set.

nerdking · #5 03-02-2007, 03:56 PM

grunch

what's villain's turn and river AF? Will he push with top pair? How about a set?

I'd call here, but I don't have much NL experience.

GrinningBuddha · #6 03-02-2007, 04:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
grunch

what's villain's turn and river AF? Will he push with top pair? How about a set?

I'd call here, but I don't have much NL experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haven't played with him too much, turn AF is 2.5, river is 2.3. Is it safe to put a player on a wider range of hands when their AF hits a certain point?

KurtSF · #7 03-02-2007, 04:02 PM

No straights, no flushes.

Plently of draws out.

You only lose to AA, JJ, 88, 33, 44.

I call, but I'm a station.

Gigglegirl · #8 03-02-2007, 04:15 PM

I'm a complete noob but here is my (very!) humble opinion. There is no made straight or flush. So the best hand beating you is a set. Pocket jacks would have re-raised pf judging by his stats. Pocket eights is a possibility but would he panic on the turn to get it all in just cos of the flush and outside straight possibles? I don't think so. Pocket 3's and 4's should (I think) fold to your pf raise but are possibles. But again why should they panic when the jack arrives?
Two pair beats you too. So J8 suited or 34 suited? Unlikely I think.
The only pair that beats you is aces. Surely it would have raised pf so I think we can discount that.
So now we get to what you beat.
AJh and T9h look like possibles. Villans all in looks to me like a bet that wants you to fold but has outs if you don't.
I think you're ahead, I call.
Can someone please tear my logic to pieces?

Wotsmycode · #9 03-02-2007, 04:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a complete noob but here is my (very!) humble opinion. There is no made straight or flush. So the best hand beating you is a set. Pocket jacks would have re-raised pf judging by his stats. Pocket eights is a possibility but would he panic on the turn to get it all in just cos of the flush and outside straight possibles? I don't think so. Pocket 3's and 4's should (I think) fold to your pf raise but are possibles. But again why should they panic when the jack arrives?
Two pair beats you too. So J8 suited or 34 suited? Unlikely I think.
The only pair that beats you is aces. Surely it would have raised pf so I think we can discount that.
So now we get to what you beat.
AJh and T9h look like possibles. Villans all in looks to me like a bet that wants you to fold but has outs if you don't.
I think you're ahead, I call.
Can someone please tear my logic to pieces?

[/ QUOTE ]
why fold pp33/44?
Imo this is a set or a draw... Flip a coin

Gigglegirl · #10 03-02-2007, 04:26 PM

Well I'd fold pre flop to an UTG 5X raise with pocket 3s and 4s. You're 7.5 to 1 to hit and if/when you miss the flop what do you do to a c/bet? I fold. So I fold pf.
I don't totally discount them but if I fold pf with them then I think Villan folds them as he's tighter than me. And if he did play pp3/4s, why all in on turn? The all in WANTS a fold, I think. If I had a set, I would not go all in on turn, I would try and extract more money.
If he has a set, I think it's eights.