Nut Flush draw facing allin..

[Joroy70]

Vilain is 20-10 and very aggro... I'm 90% sure I have 12outs maybe 15...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP3 ($96.80)
CO ($75.64)
Button ($196.86)
SB ($198)
BB ($72.60)
UTG ($231.75)
UTG+1 ($196)
MP1 ($284.65)
Hero ($335)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $6</font>, Hero calls $6, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $6, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($21) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets $18</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $60</font>, CO folds, MP1 calls $284.65 (All-In), Hero

[GrandMelon]

Im pretty sure you're a big dog here with 0 cards to come.

[Oxy]

I don't raise the flop if I don't want to be playing the hand for stacks. Villain is not likely to just call unless he has you dominated with trip tens and is going for a c/p on turn, so he's often gonna either push or fold. Seeing as you have to fold to a push (he's repping QQ-AA and you're a 3-1 dog to that, and you're not getting 3-1 odds), you should call flop and reeval turn, possibly make a bet if he checks to you (but I prefer waiting until the river to make a bet, he's not gonna bet out with AK/AQ very often).

[GiantBuddha]

You're getting like 1.6:1? Obviously if your ace is good then this is a call. If an ace or a queen is good (unlikely), then you're psyched. If he has a set or aces, you're in moderately bad shape.

I think this is a call, unless he's almost always has a set here. If he was equally likely to start the hand with aces, kings, queens, tens or eights and would play all of those this way, then now he's as likely to have kings or queens as he is to have aces, tens or eights. If that's his whole range, then you have a call. If his range is wider, even better.

[GiantBuddha]

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I don't raise the flop if I don't want to be playing the hand for stacks.

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This is spot on. And don't raise an amount that you won't know how to respond to a shove.

[ QUOTE ]
he's repping QQ-AA and you're a 3-1 dog to that, and you're not getting 3-1 odds

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This I don't get. How is he a 3-1 dog?

[Panthro]

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This I don't get. How is he a 3-1 dog?

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We're a 3-1 dog to a set, close to flipping w/ most one pair hands(except AA).

[homeboy604]

i like this re raise, especially if he c-bets a lot.
you probably have 12 outs here so you might be a slight dog.

Also, if you play your sets like this thats money.

[GiantBuddha]

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We're a 3-1 dog to a set

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds more like it.

[Joroy70]

So I call my read was right he had JJ but didint hit... SO was 53% ahead.