JJ, facing large river bet. 50NL

[Jayy]

Villain is 39/17/1.57 after just 70 hands. No other history with him. If I raise the turn with a modest raise of 18, that leaves him with roughly 9 behind, any push and I'm pretty much committed. So if I'm raising there, its an all-in, right? How often is this a missed draw or stone cold bluff on the river? Obviously a set is in his range.. just his awkward stack size leaves me in a tough spot. Criticism on all streets welcome.


Full Tilt Poker
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
Hero (MP): $96.65
CO: $55.35
BTN: $38.20
SB: $50.15
BB: $49.5
UTG: $43.85

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($0.75, 6 players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $1.75, SB folds, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($4.25, 2 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, BTN calls $3

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] ($10.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $6</font>, Hero calls $6

<font color="black">River:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] ($22.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $15</font>, [i]Hero ???

[and12006]

PF just raise to 2 on the flop bet closer to the pot, bet on the turn and put a blocking bet on the rvr and revaluate the river, he could have 1010, 99, 88, as played I'd just call the river.

[payoff wizard]

Pre-flop - raise is a little small. Try at least 4 x bb

Flop - bet bigger to price out FD and OESD, like 1.5 pot.

Turn - Pot control is an issue here. Check and call a reasonable bet.

River - 1/3 pot blocking bet is my play here. Check just looks like you've given up on your AK.

[br.bm]

bet the turn, $6 should do

"How often is this a missed draw or stone cold bluff on the river? "
I'd say 10% of the time