2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb's deep

[johnbeans]

[ QUOTE ]
johnybeans,

are you folding to a c/r shove?

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I was thinking in my head it might be sick if I hit my flush and he shoved, but after his "aces or kings?" comment and his quick river check I made up my mind that he did not have a flush. So yes, I would have called a C/R push.

[thedustbustr]

thats a lot of bbs to put on a speech read

i dont see any reason he can't have the nuts if he pushes

[stigmata]

550 would be my default on the river

[lowpockets]

I would shy away from betting 800 on the river. I think the 500-600 range is most likely to get a call.

[Hong]

[ QUOTE ]
Well I ended up tanking for about 30 seconds and calling. As soon as I call he says, "Is it aces or kings?". I don't say anything, and the river is a 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. He quickly checks to me. At this point I'm almost certain he does not have a flush as I really do not think he is the type of player who would check a flush to me at this point. Joe has also yet to see me make a single river bet, so what size of bet do people think is best here? The pot is now $842.

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Bet size comparison.

Pot 842 at river.

Hero stack=3100
Villian stack>3100


Bet[% of his call]
Likely holding(%) 400bet 850bet 1200bet
AQ str(30%) 90% 50% 20%
AK TPTK(50%) 75% 35% 10%
others(20%) 60% 40% 5%

400bet (1/2pot)
400x(0.3x0.9+0.5x0.75+0.2x0.6)=306

850bet (pot size)
850x(0.5x0.5+0.5x0.35+0.2x0.3)=327

1200bet (1.5pot)
1200x(0.3x0.2+0.5x0.1+0.2x0.05)=144

I think the pot size bet is the most valuable bet. Obviously it varies if you change the % based on your judgement on the opponent.

Hong

[jmc999]

[ QUOTE ]
Well I ended up tanking for about 30 seconds and calling. As soon as I call he says, "Is it aces or kings?". I don't say anything, and the river is a 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. He quickly checks to me. At this point I'm almost certain he does not have a flush as I really do not think he is the type of player who would check a flush to me at this point. Joe has also yet to see me make a single river bet, so what size of bet do people think is best here? The pot is now $842.

[/ QUOTE ]

I read up to this point and decided to Grunch the rest:
My guess is that he has something like JT or T9/89 for a semi-bluff on the turn.

I'd have to guess that he can beat AA but can't beat KK by his comment -- so I put him on JT [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[stigmata]

I agree jmc, his comment does make it sound like 2 pair (can beat AA but not KK). Which makes a smaller value bet probably better than pot.

EDIT: I put him on KJ [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[johnbeans]

[ QUOTE ]
thats a lot of bbs to put on a speech read

i dont see any reason he can't have the nuts if he pushes

[/ QUOTE ]

The only nut hand that makes sense for him to have in my mind is A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and there's a reasonable chance he just mucks that pre flop OOP. Also, had he just pushed or bet 1.5 x's the pot + I would have had a very tough decision. But I really didn't think he was insta checking the nut flush to me on the river, just my read.