bubble hand from SNG vip match w/ greg raymer

[spacegravy]

PokerStars Game #8644436842: Tournament #41460837, Freeroll Hold'em No Limit -
Level VI (100/200) - 2007/02/26 - 22:26:45 (ET)
Table '41460837 1' 10-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Stunts25 (2145 in chips)
Seat 2: NOLUCK4ME2 (3440 in chips)
Seat 5: tfnc314 (6380 in chips)
Seat 8: Svobodenho (1165 in chips)
Seat 10: spacegravy (1870 in chips)
Svobodenho: posts small blind 100
spacegravy: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to spacegravy [Jh Jd]
Stunts25: folds
NOLUCK4ME2: raises 600 to 800
tfnc314: calls 800
NOLUCK4ME2 said, "i call"
Svobodenho: folds
spacegravy: folds
*** FLOP *** [6h 9c 4d]
NOLUCK4ME2: bets 2640 and is all-in
tfnc314: folds
NOLUCK4ME2 collected 1900 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1900 | Rake 0
Board [6h 9c 4d]
Seat 1: Stunts25 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: NOLUCK4ME2 collected (1900)
Seat 5: tfnc314 (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 8: Svobodenho (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 10: spacegravy (big blind) folded before Flop

Sorry converter broken, tell pergo to stop bein drunk all the time and fix it haha.

tfnc314 is a very solid high stakes player. The initial raiser is about a break even mid stakes player. What is tfnc314 flat calling w/ here? I thought this was a fold because their both pot comitted to call so i have to beat 2 good hands and shorty was bout to go out.

[vm1124]

What is the payout structure?

[spacegravy]

[ QUOTE ]
What is the payout structure?

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1 1000
2 500
3 300
4 200

[Sparta45]

This is a pretty easy push IMO....you're way ahead of both of their ranges and you only have 9 bb's left. Just b/c he calls doesn't mean he has a monster....I think you psyched yourself out a little bit by his call.

Since he's basically pwning so far, I don't see why he would slowplay a stronger hand (AA,KK,QQ,etc) against the one stack at the table that would hurt him the most if he were to lose the hand. An AK or AQ or maybe a middle pair like 8's-J's are likely holdings for him I think.....but without a doubt, I'm pushing this.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
What is tfnc314 flat calling w/ here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding equity on the bubble is often larger postflop than preflop. I would imagine a "very solid high stakes player" would know when and how to exploit this. It doesn't come up as often as stacks are rarely deep enough to allow postflop bubble play. I think he's calling with a lot of hands here, not just limited to slowplaying monsters.

You're worth about $295 if you fold and about $600 if you triple through. I really wanted to call before I came up with that. Being up against AK and KQ is a disaster. Even seeing AK and 99 sucks. Now I want to fold.

I disagree with your assessment that "shorty was about to go out."

[Sparta45]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is tfnc314 flat calling w/ here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding equity on the bubble is often larger postflop than preflop. I would imagine a "very solid high stakes player" would know when and how to exploit this. It doesn't come up as often as stacks are rarely deep enough to allow postflop bubble play. I think he's calling with a lot of hands here, not just limited to slowplaying monsters.

You're worth about $295 if you fold and about $600 if you triple through. I really wanted to call before I came up with that. Being up against AK and KQ is a disaster. Even seeing AK and 99 sucks. Now I want to fold.

I disagree with your assessment that "shorty was about to go out."

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm confused, are you trying to say he should call, fold, or push??

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is tfnc314 flat calling w/ here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding equity on the bubble is often larger postflop than preflop. I would imagine a "very solid high stakes player" would know when and how to exploit this. It doesn't come up as often as stacks are rarely deep enough to allow postflop bubble play. I think he's calling with a lot of hands here, not just limited to slowplaying monsters.

You're worth about $295 if you fold and about $600 if you triple through. I really wanted to call before I came up with that. Being up against AK and KQ is a disaster. Even seeing AK and 99 sucks. Now I want to fold.

I disagree with your assessment that "shorty was about to go out."

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm confused, are you trying to say he should call, fold, or push??

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought it looked like a push at first, but then I actually ran through some numbers and now I think it's a fold.

[Hercules]

I`m prolly pushing this. I can understand that you might be scared, because you almost have 200$ for sure. But I`d bet that pushing here is +chip and +$EV

[fluorescenthippo]

oops when you showed me this on aim i didnt see the shortstack had 1100 ish only. its a lot closer now. also, go on aim now plz

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
I`m prolly pushing this. I can understand that you might be scared, because you almost have 200$ for sure. But I`d bet that pushing here is +chip and +$EV

[/ QUOTE ]

Go back and read my first post in this thread again. You need to triple through about 50% of the time to make this +$EV. It's slightly better if one player folds, but those are more likely to be scenarios where the original raiser pushes and the big stack folds. JJ doesn't do well against the range he's 4-bet pushing there, probably JJ+ and AK. There's no way you push and both players fold.