NLTRN turning a low pair

[omgwtfnoway]

relevant reads are that the opponent is very loose in the big blind and the last time i took this line, he led into me on the turn and took down the pot. there are several other spots where he's tried to take the pot down postflop when i made a cbet and checked through the turn, he's not a maniac but there's a good chance he was bluffing on some of these.
Hero: A3c
blinds 10-20
hero raises to 60. villain calls.
Flop KQ2 rainbow
villain checks. hero checks.
turn 3
villain leads for 80 into a 120 pot.

the reason i'm confused is i think there's a good chance that i'm beat here by a Q or K and also a decent chance that my pair of 3s are good and he's bluffing. if i knew he was bluffing i would raise and if i knew he was value betting i would fold but i don't know which is which.
raising isn't a good play because it's usually as a bluff. i don't like folding because i'd rather he not think i can be pushed off any hand where i've shown weakness. calling to reevaluate the river is my personal preference, what do you guys think?

[calf]

just c-bet whatever you c-bet on the flop and he'll fold whatever random crap he missed with and hopefully bigger aces and small pairs that he didn't 3-bet pre.

the 3 on the turn really doesn't make your hand any better except against bigger unpaired aces or a 2, but the point is just bet the flop unless he is liable to play back at your c-bets with junk a whole lot. the hand not only becomes easier to play this way but it is also probably the more optimal play as any hand that you happen to be ahead of has at least 6 outs anyway so to fold them out would be in our benefit, especially since we have no clue what cards help him since he is so loose from the bb.

fold turn as played. as you realized, it's very difficult to determine whether or not he's bluffing at this point in the hand, but there's still another street and not many cards can make the river decision any easier.

had you bet 90 on the flop and he called and checked this turn to you I'd check back and fold to a reasonable river bet barring an A or 3. If you bet the flop and he puts in some other sort of action either through a c/r or a turn lead I'd instamuck barring history which you know more about.

[omgwtfnoway]

[ QUOTE ]
just c-bet whatever you c-bet on the flop and he'll fold whatever random crap he missed with and hopefully bigger aces and small pairs that he didn't 3-bet pre.

[/ QUOTE ]
are you saying i should cbet every flop? that sounds like really bad advice.

[calf]

2 high cards and a low card rainbow. you whiffed. your hand can't improve much but has showdown value. you are playing some clown who is way loose from the big blind but shows a propensity to bluff when you show weakness. if you bet 90 into a pot of 120 he has to fold less than half the time for you to show an immediate profit. cheap and effective since he doesn't have a pair 68% of the time on the flop and the only reasonable draw is with JT.

I've played a few thousand low limit HU SNGs and I am confident this play works much more often than that. Judging by this hand and opponent description this is very likely a low limit HU SNG. I might not c-bet A3 against a loose opponent on say a 89T flop or if the flop in your hand was monotone or something, but generally c-bet is the play.

Obviously if you c-bet every flop your opponent should catch on and play back but a lot of people just don't, and since you go to UCLA you should be smart enough to figure out when they're smart enough to start playing back and then you start playing back or c-betting less or whatever. that's poker, right?

just because a c-bet fails doesn't mean you lose the hand. not like he's going to c/r you with a queen or king every time so you can still spike an ace and win or just check it down against his 9T or TJ.

also you shouldn't c-bet sometimes when you have a draw or middle pair or something but this isn't one of those situations since him folding the flop is probably your best chance to win the hand if he isn't gonna let you check down and win with ace high.

[Nichomacheo]

What would you do on that flop with

AK
AQ
AJ
AT
AA
KK
QQ
JJ

Generally this is a bad flop to c-bet. It hits a lot of hands in his range. Although his range is wide, you cant profitably c-bet this flop 100% of the time. It really depends on how often you check behind and how loose you think he'll call a c-bet (how about Q2?). I might fire a few barrels at this pot given his looseness. You just have to keep in mind what you would do if you actually had a hand too.

Another option is to check the flop like you did, but raise his turn bet. I think this is a pretty scary line to take, especially if he's a thinking player at all and knows his own image. This is not for the faint hearted though.

[FeNeF]

With your reads I cbet this flop, no way will he continue with J8 or whatever here. If he were tighter I'd like the check. As played, again based on your read I'm calling the turn and folding river UI.

[calf]

[ QUOTE ]
What would you do on that flop with

AK
AQ
AJ
AT
AA
KK
QQ
JJ

Generally this is a bad flop to c-bet. It hits a lot of hands in his range. Although his range is wide, you cant profitably c-bet this flop 100% of the time. It really depends on how often you check behind and how loose you think he'll call a c-bet (how about Q2?). I might fire a few barrels at this pot given his looseness. You just have to keep in mind what you would do if you actually had a hand too.

Another option is to check the flop like you did, but raise his turn bet. I think this is a pretty scary line to take, especially if he's a thinking player at all and knows his own image. This is not for the faint hearted though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet every hand listed most of the time and I'd bet 45 or 89 or whatever 100%. I'm most likely to check AQ, JJ and the gutshots. But our opponent doesn't know that anyway does he so how does it matter?

I have no idea what you're talking about with Q2 as an example. Are you saying 2 pair is a large part of his range therefore we shouldn't bet? If he can have Q2 he can have any 2 cards and there are lots lots lots more combinations of cards that missed this flop than hit. Do you think he's more likely to have K4 or 78?

And if this is a bad flop to c-bet because it hit so many hands and he isn't folding isn't it just suicide to raise the turn? Does the turn raise really have a higher rate of success than a flop bet taking into account how much it costs? I have no certainty but instinctively I say no. I'm sure we can come up with all sorts of silly ways to play this hand but even with OP having cbet and checked behind turn a few times in the past I still think this flop is too good not to bet. he can't even have 2 overcards if he's missed. And if we really think we're being taken advantage of by c-betting and checking behind turn we could always try to like.. bet the flop and the turn if we think he's weak.. or raise the river or whatever, but it may not even be necessary.

Why make things harder? How often do you think we get called on the flop I guess is what it boils down to and I could definitely be way wrong but I'd have to be convinced. Even if we bet the full pot on the flop it only has to work half the time right?