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#31
02-26-2007, 06:13 PM
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Re: OFFICIAL DONK 60% in a year THREAD
I think your number are right as well.
I got $583,201.62 using your assumptions with a $500 bankroll. You assume that you will win 60% every week and are dividing your money into 5 piles. I was assuming that you are a 60% winner and bet 20% of your bankroll on every game and are not sure how many games you will win per week. Hope this helps.. Enjoy this experiment and have fun but most important.. Don't do this with money you care about. 
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#32
02-26-2007, 07:23 PM
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Re: OFFICIAL DONK 60% in a year THREAD
[ QUOTE ]
I think your number are right as well. I got $583,201.62 using your assumptions with a $500 bankroll. You assume that you will win 60% every week and are dividing your money into 5 piles. I was assuming that you are a 60% winner and bet 20% of your bankroll on every game and are not sure how many games you will win per week. Hope this helps.. Enjoy this experiment and have fun but most important.. Don't do this with money you care about. [/ QUOTE ] It's a bit different because you expect to hit 60% in the long run...it's not a fixed return. The simplest explanation IMO is that you expect to gain around 1.5% of your total bankroll with each bet. So 1.015^(5*52) * original BR is my estimate. 1.5% comes from the kelly betting formula.
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#33
02-26-2007, 07:43 PM
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Re: OFFICIAL DONK 60% in a year THREAD
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think your number are right as well. I got $583,201.62 using your assumptions with a $500 bankroll. You assume that you will win 60% every week and are dividing your money into 5 piles. I was assuming that you are a 60% winner and bet 20% of your bankroll on every game and are not sure how many games you will win per week. Hope this helps.. Enjoy this experiment and have fun but most important.. Don't do this with money you care about. [/ QUOTE ] It's a bit different because you expect to hit 60% in the long run...it's not a fixed return. The simplest explanation IMO is that you expect to gain around 1.5% of your total bankroll with each bet. So 1.015^(5*52) * original BR is my estimate. 1.5% comes from the kelly betting formula. [/ QUOTE ] Then I guess I will be busto way before any of this since I am going for 3 for 5 every week haha
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