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#21
02-25-2007, 11:23 AM
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Re: OFFICIAL DONK 60% in a year THREAD
1-1 50% -.91
Houston +17.5 $10 St. Johns +7.5 $10 Kentucky +2.5 $10 I decided I am just going to go back to 5 games. It is easier knowing I need to win 3 out of 5 games than 3.6 out of 6. And will be easier to know when exactly to move up in bet amount (no decimal places and whatever else since I would need to go 3 one week, 4 the next, and so on). So, these games will make 5, which means I have to go 2-1 to move up. If I go 0-3 uhhh atleast I won 1 game? No cow plays for now 
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#22
02-25-2007, 12:04 PM
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Re: OFFICIAL DONK 60% in a year THREAD
[ QUOTE ]
Since I only win about 40 percent of the bets I make should I bet $10 on 5 games a week on the opposite of who I like? [/ QUOTE ] That's the confidence! Maybe you should try tailing instead.
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#23
02-25-2007, 05:08 PM
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Re: OFFICIAL DONK 60% in a year THREAD
St Johns gets blown out.
UK covers by a half a point. Houston pulls it out in the end. All in all 3 for 5 though and on to Week 2: 3-2 60% $57.27 Hawks +9 $11.45 (I said in my other thread, I am just going to update this in my regular threads so people dont have to keep looking at both).
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#24
02-26-2007, 04:37 PM
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Re: OFFICIAL DONK 60% in a year THREAD
Just for kicks I ran some number:
Assume 60% chance of winning All bets -110 5 bets per week for a year (260 bets) Bet 20% of bankroll on every game. $500 starting bankroll 20 Random samples: Win % Bankroll at End 61.2% $94.90 63.5% $305.94 60.4% $64.24 59.6% $43.48 76.5% $232,524.56 52.7% $1.30 74.2% $72,125.16 71.2% $15,144.12 67.3% $2,152.49 66.5% $1,457.07 69.6% $6,939.41 71.9% $22,372.00 75.8% $157,401.24 65.0% $667.67 72.7% $33,049.54 73.5% $61.00 62.7% $207.10 58.8% $29.44 72.7% $33,049.54 69.6% $6,939.41 Average of 20 Sample: 67.3% $29,231.48 Assume you win 3 games a week and lose 2: Win % Bank Roll at End 60.0% $8674.27 Issue #1: If your backroll got to 100K could you make the 20K bets everyday. Issue #2: If you are a 60% winner over 260 bets, you are real lucky or you can make real money with out this system. Note: I saw one run get a bankroll of 10 million. Wow The variance is huge.
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#25
02-26-2007, 04:41 PM
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Re: OFFICIAL DONK 60% in a year THREAD
[ QUOTE ]
Just for kicks I ran some number: Assume 60% chance of winning All bets -110 5 bets per week for a year (260 bets) Bet 20% of bankroll on every game. $500 starting bankroll 20 Random samples: Win % Bankroll at End 61.2% $94.90 63.5% $305.94 60.4% $64.24 59.6% $43.48 76.5% $232,524.56 52.7% $1.30 74.2% $72,125.16 71.2% $15,144.12 67.3% $2,152.49 66.5% $1,457.07 69.6% $6,939.41 71.9% $22,372.00 75.8% $157,401.24 65.0% $667.67 72.7% $33,049.54 73.5% $61.00 62.7% $207.10 58.8% $29.44 72.7% $33,049.54 69.6% $6,939.41 Average of 20 Sample: 67.3% $29,231.48 Assume you win 3 games a week and lose 2: Win % Bank Roll at End 60.0% $8674.27 Issue #1: If your backroll got to 100K could you make the 20K bets everyday. Issue #2: If you are a 60% winner over 260 bets, you are real lucky or you can make real money with out this system. Note: I saw one run get a bankroll of 10 million. Wow The variance is huge. [/ QUOTE ] wow, thanks alot that is just what i was looking for
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#26
02-26-2007, 04:57 PM
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Re: OFFICIAL DONK 60% in a year THREAD
winning $1.30 instead of $152k if you really *were* 60% 'capper would be darkly humorous.
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#27
02-26-2007, 04:59 PM
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Re: OFFICIAL DONK 60% in a year THREAD
[ QUOTE ]
winning $1.30 instead of $152k if you really *were* 60% 'capper would be darkly humorous. [/ QUOTE ] I am just doing this for fun. I don't even claim to be a winning sports bettor
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#28
02-26-2007, 05:21 PM
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Re: OFFICIAL DONK 60% in a year THREAD
[ QUOTE ]
Assume you win 3 games a week and lose 2: Win % Bank Roll at End 60.0% $8674.27 [/ QUOTE ] I dont want to keep bringing this up because its clearly not going to happen. Two people have gotten $8674 for a year. I am a donk at math and computers so where did I go wrong here? 3 wins and 2 losses every week would be a ROI of 15% @ -110, right? How come I keep getting ~$600,000 out of a starting BR of $500?
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#30
02-26-2007, 05:52 PM
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Re: OFFICIAL DONK 60% in a year THREAD
Hmmm still not quite understanding.
Take $50 since this is what I am gambooling it up with. If I go 3-2 in week 1 that is $57.27 @-110 and that is betting my whole bankroll on the 5 games (20% each). My ROI for those 5 games (1 week) is 15% Next week, same thing. Start with $57.27, go 3-2 end with $65.60. That is 15% ROI on your BR bet. So shouldnt you be able to expect a 15% ROI/week for 52 weeks? Sorry I am slow at getting this.
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