(27) KQs on the bubble

[PTB]

sounds good, thanks

[Shillx]

He would be getting 27:14 or about 2:1 to call the shove. You have to tack on another 9% due to the payout structure so he needs to be ~ 43% to win in order to call. So in this situation he should call with like 60-65% of your shoving range. If he opens with say the top 30% and never folds he is making a huge mistake (he should call with something like the top 6%) . I don't know what he will do but this isn't like an MTT where he would be priced in with KT or whatever.

e: I'd move in everytime barring a read in the higher level SNGs.

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
He would be getting 27:14 or about 2:1 to call the shove.... I don't know what he will do but this isn't like an MTT where he would be priced in with KT or whatever.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is interesting to me, Shillx. Despite getting 2:1, having us easily covered he should fold KT? This is one of those spots were if I'm re-raised and I see that I'm getting 2:1 I would probably hope he has wired 9s and feel I need to call w/ such a hand. Thanks.

[PocketNinjas]

shillx: where is the 9% coming from?

[Shillx]

Okay I'm bored so I'll see exactly what should go down here. The thing is that this spot doesn't come up often with good players because the small open is super exploitable. Let us pretend that he opens with the top 30%.

His ICM when you push:
Fold = 29.5%
Win = 39.0%
Lose = 23.3%
p(win) = ~ .4

When you need 40% equity to call a push, you should call with basically the same % of hands that the pusher is moving in with. This can be verified in SNGPT.

Your ICM:
Fold = 16.9%
Push/NC = 21.1%
Push/Win = 28.5%
Equity Min = .4

Your push range is determined by your fold equity (x = call %)

.169 < .211(1-x) + .285x*Equity
.169 < .211 - .211x + 114x

x < 44%

The approx solution to the problem when he opens with the top 30% is that we should push 13% of the time and he should call 43% of the time (or the top 13% of all hands). This isn't totally accurate due to range complications but it should be close enough. Notice that you can only call 5.4% of the time against an open push (30% range) so raising to t600 is a huge mistake.

[Green Kool Aid]

Shillx I wish I were smart enough to understand your EV calcs.

[Austiger]

Well you don't know what he's raising with, so you don't know if it's a mistake or not. The SB has a huge stack so open pushing with a big range isn't smart with those stacks.

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
Shillx I wish I were smart enough to understand your EV calcs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, my head hurts.

Also what is the correct raise amount in this hand, 750-800ish?

[Mike MacIntosh]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Shillx I wish I were smart enough to understand your EV calcs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, my head hurts.

Also what is the correct raise amount in this hand, 750-800ish?

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting. I know pushing is dreadful in this spot. So I guess button should be raising more to price himself accordingly when the BB comes over the top. I am guessing 800 is the best number...but I don't have a BA in ICM calcs...

[dipstikdave]

push. villain has KTo