two reasons lakisha is overpriced

[thing85]

It could just be that the relative lack of active betting among US viewers is causing the pricing to be off. Forums like this one that probably source the majority of the trading volume for AI have really pushed Lakisha early on.

The one certainty is that Lakisha CANNOT be a lock to win this right now. No one can. The general consensus on this forum seems to be that there are maybe 5 or 6 people that have a chance (albeit small) to win this competition.

My personal take is that our sample size for viewing the contestants is way too small right now. I think we have a good feel for the female side (Lakisha and Doolittle are huge favorites) but the male side is way too uncertain due to a number of factors - the major one being song choice. For almost every male who sang last week, the common criticism was "your song was too safe" or "that song is too big for you right now." I think there are viable competitors among the guys but we just haven't heard the right songs to accurately assess it.

With that, I'm going say that right now, the female favorites are overvalued and the males are undervalued. The exception to that, IMO, is Blake. After listening to his performance a few more times from last week, I don't think he was great. He has a good voice and good image, but the song really did nothing for me.

We'll obviously get a better look at this tomorrow.

[moneyshot]

also, remember that Simon saying the contest is over is discouraging people from voting for Lakisha.

[mynamewastaken]

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Sundance has flat out sucked every single week other than the audition. He hasn't shown ANYTHING other than the audition. I could hardly believe that he even made it to the semi-finals after he botched every performance in Hollywood week.

I don't get why so many people are still in his corner.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's because Simon said Sundance would be a finalist. And it's Simon's record label, so if he wants you to succeed you will succeed regardless of looks, personality or talent.

There has never been a contestant like Sundance on the show before because there has never been such a popular favorite who has taken a nosedive so quickly. A 'safe' performance a la Brandon Rogers is fine for the early going if you already have a fanbase but Sundance will really have to pick it up if he doesn't want to be the SHOCKING ELIMINATION ZOMG

I personally think he still has the talent to go far. The next two weeks will be the dealbreakers for him, but I fully expect him to close out one of the upcoming shows and pull a Lakisha and him, Brandon and Sligh will re-become the male frontrunners.

To the poster who said talent always wins out over looks, you couldnt be more wrongo. Daughtry was more talented than Hicks. Bo was more talented than Carrie. Hell, Mandisa was a lot more talented than Carrie. And Clay was more talented than Ruben, yet Ruben won despite his looks and is considered far and away the biggest Idol failure. I just can't see the producers allowing this to happen again, but they won't want to look like they're singling out Lakisha because she fell out of the ugly tree, so I expect the early rounds to be designed to trip her up with Country night, ABBA night, Gregorian Chant night, etc.

Anyway this is all purely speculation but I am putting my money where my mouth is and shorting Lakisha at -300. I would also short Blake and Sabrina if I had the bankroll for it.

I agree with the poster who said there are only 5-6 people who have a legit shot at winning (unless circumstances change drastically). I'd say they are:

Lakisha
Melinda
Jordin
Brandon
Chris Sligh
Sundance

The two frontrunners will split some of the vote down the line allowing one of the dark horses (almost certainly a male) to squeeze between them. For this reason I can foresee no way for the final 2 to be Melinda-Lakisha, and I will offer odds against this being a final outcome to anyone who's interested.

[thing85]

myname,

Given you are taking a short position on Lakisha, would you mind sharing with us your current portfolio?

[revots33]

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To the poster who said talent always wins out over looks, you couldnt be more wrongo. Daughtry was more talented than Hicks.

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I don't get this. First off, I think Hicks was way more talented and versatile a performer than Daughtry. Secondly, I think Daughtry was considered by most as one of the "sex symbols" of last year, not Taylor. By your logic Daughtry should've won based on his looks.

Seriously, I think you are making it more complicated than it needs to be by focusing on things like appearance, weight, etc. Fantasia was fugly and not very likeable either. But she was the best performer (from that crappy year anyway) and she won. It's a singing competition (as Simon loves to say).

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Anyway this is all purely speculation but I am putting my money where my mouth is and shorting Lakisha at -300.

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BIG mistake IMO. I'd love to know how many shares you're shorting.

[rJ_]

Fat guys ie. Ruben are lovable.

Fat girls just eat too much. Mandisa cheeseburger and Tubby Hudon did not win and neither will Lakisha.

rJ_

[NoChance]

I can't understand how people are still buying at this price. She has gone from 28 to 30 this week. There is no upside at this price right now. You are either betting her to win or you will lose money. I can't imagine this price changes much in the next 3 weeks or so. Why wouldn't you just wait to see how she does the next few weeks at this price? Seems like a pretty big gamble after only 1 performance.

[curtains]

Lakisha is giant favorite!! The people love her, she dominated dialidol. I think shes a good bet at 3-1 and that she will become more expensive in future weeks.

[Mike Haven]

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Based on that video, she should have won whatever competition this was.


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Too right! That was brilliant!