A Request For A Calculation About My Last Tournament Hand

[David Sklansky]

Not wanting to come back the next day shortstacked, I made a rambunctious play shortly before the day was to end. Nine handed. 300-600 blinds. 75 ante. Two fold. Six players behind me. I push in my 8000 with J9 of clubs.

Making the simplifying assumptions that all other positions have the same calling (or overcalling) requirements, how tight would those requirements have to be such that my play was plus EV?

[Pauwl]

I don't know how to factor in overcalls and with that many players behind you it might be a poor assumption that you will only get one caller, but that's what I used and it was still +EV to shove when your opponents are all calling with 66+,ATs+, AJo+.

The 675 in the pot preflop from the antes makes your shove better than it might seem at first glance. The preflop pot is 1575 before anybody has acted, so when nobody calls you, you gain alot.

And you only have 5M, so open shove. Haven't you ever read HOH2? j/k [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[gdsdiscgolfer]

Why do you need people to do it for you? Is this supposed to be the beginning of some progression where you "teach" everyone some concept that everyone misses?

[EnderIII]

If calling requirements are 10% of hands and overcalling requirements are 2% hands, then you'll net a whopping 25 chips in the long run.

Interesting question. Since you are essentially desiring to add variance, its unlikely you'll take too big of a hit in EV and might actually gain some if people are tighter than that.

With assumptions of 5% and 2%, you'll actually net nearly 750, which being nearly 10% of your stack is nothing to sneeze at. 5% isn't that unreasonable either being 99+, AJs+ AKo and KQs.

[wood1028]

Doesn't it depend a lot on how you are perceived at the table? You are now short stacked, but you will still be only marginally better off if, as I assume you hope, everyone folds. Wouldn't you be better off waiting for a better chance to double up or the same cards in later position?

[J.A.Sucker]

David,

The question should probably become: "How much does my opponents' calling (or overcalling) requirements get skewed when they know I'm not wanting to come back the next day shortstacked?"

I think that most tourney veterans would be aware of this fact, especially if they know you even a little bit. I think their calling standards would thusly go down a lot. However, if you made this play earlier in the day, you'd get away with it a lot more. That said, with the pot at 1575 with blinds and antes, you won't be in terrible shape regardless (factoring in your time). Just my opinion.