100NL 6max TP2K getting bet into on river when flush hit.

[Erik W]

Opponent is 40/11 and somewhat agressive.
Have just 200 mined hands on him.
Never seem him get out of line.

It seems like a valuebet.
I raised pre and bet flop and turn.
He must figure I have some kind of hand like top pairish so
it really looks like a good value bet from him.

I however dislike to fold too often in these situations.
People might try to push me off hands. I doubt people think this deep at this limit. Maybe I should not overanalyze situations like this against nonthinking opponents and put them on what they are supposed to have when they bet.

What do you guys think?


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($97.50)
BB ($76.65)
UTG ($121.30)
MP ($140.20)
Hero ($123.28)
Button ($51.73)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls $4.

Flop: ($11.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, UTG calls $7.

Turn: ($25.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, UTG calls $15.

River: ($55.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $30</font>, Hero ??????

[carnivalhobo]

folding here is fine

[cbboy]

Bet more on flop and turn. River fold is fine.

[giant sand]

I would make it about $20 on the turn.

I don't think you win this showdown enough to justify calling the River bet, so just fold.

[Erik W]

Thx for the advice.
I agree that it is a fold.
He showed A6c.

About the betsizing. I rarely pot the pot but bets like 50%-100% depending on board and opponents. It seems to me that a cb of 70% takes it down as often as 100% and since I almost always cb it makes sence to make it a little lower if I have a hand or not. That is how I play it, betsizing is however something I need to get better at at times.

I felt he had a weak q more often than a fd when he called flop so I opted to bet 15$ which I thought would be more likely to get a call than a 20$ bet.

Will high vpip opponents take that into account or not?
Will they call anyway if I bet 20-25? I don't know, what is your experience?

A 15$ bet should however be enough to price out a fd with an
Ace in it but just barely if I opt to call the river. If I choose to not call the river then I can bet less on the turn
compared to if I have already decided to not call a river club.

Maybe bad opponents will draw anyway with a higher bet.
People just seems to like their draws without being able to know if they are profitable or not(bad players) so it might be better to bet more anyway.

Any thoughts about my reasoning?

[Jigsaws]

Bad opponents don't look at bet sizing. They either want to call or they don't. So if you think you have the best hand, bet close to pot. Bad opponents will also never fold top pair to a turn bet here, so again, bet close to pot.

[shpanko]

Pot turn, fold river