Bet or check this river?

Bogglor · #1 02-14-2006, 02:19 AM

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $1.00 BB (8 handed) converter

BB ($93.20)
UTG ($40)
UTG+1 ($99)
MP1 ($107)
MP2 ($93)
Hero ($217.65)
Button ($293.95)
SB ($24.80)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, Button calls $1, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($5) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets $2, Hero raises to $10.75, Button raises to $19.5, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls $17.50, Hero calls $8.75.

Turn: ($63.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks, Button bets $30, MP1 folds, Hero calls $30.

River: ($123.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: $123.50

I raised the MP's weak lead figuring that I had a decent hand and draw both, but was much more cautious after the button's min raise. I didn't have much of a read on him, so he could be minraising with anything between a set, 2 pair, or a draw. I'm much more likely to suspect made hands from unknown players rather than draws when I see a minraise, however. I dunno if this is right or not. I called the raise and picked up a bunch more outs with the nut flush draw. My rationale in the heat of the moment was:

I don't want to get blown off this hand by betting into him here with my strong draw. If he raises all-in after I lead, I'm put to a very difficult decision. I would rather see the river cheaply. If I check and he bets the pot, I can call since I have 16 clean outs.

After a post mortem on the hand though, I wondered after seeing his 1/2 pot bet on the turn whether or not I should have check-raised myself. Any set would surely bet the pot here as the board is semi-dangerous and wouldn't want to get a cheap river. I might be giving my opponent too much credit for thinking he might even consider this though. Thoughts on checkraising the turn with this hand? Obviously it solves the river dilemma...

So the result of the hand is not in doubt, but what about the check on the river? The way I figured it, the BB has some kind of hand and has had the lead throughout. If I bet into him after the 3rd flush card hits, he's definitely going to fold if he has a mediocre hand. By checking the river, I give him the chance to continue firing with his set/two pair/ whatever or on a bluff or give him the chance to bet a weaker flush (since he'd likely not figure that I backdoored the nut flush). My other option is to make a very small value bet. I thought the risk/reward of checking was greater, but I'm not so sure. Thoughts?

wheatrich · #2 02-14-2006, 02:29 AM

I think he's going to check this river behind you almost 100% of the time.

There's your answer.

BluffTHIS! · #3 02-14-2006, 02:31 AM

Check/call the turn like you did. Bet the river however much you think he will call, but don't expect him to bet it for you after he has represented a set and now both a flush and straight have come backdoor. BTW, if your actual hand had been something like 8765/8763 with a bigger draw that actually merited a flop raise and call, then that same river when you had no flush would have been a great spot for a pot size bluff.

Bogglor · #4 02-14-2006, 10:35 AM

I guess my rationale was that since the flush came in backdoor, he'd be less likely to check it behind than if it was a flush that came in on the flop suit. But then I guess someone with just a set/2 pair would be scared of any flush possibility no matter how it came, you're right.

As far as the flop raise, I was mostly going for FE against the MP's min weak lead bet but had outs if I was called. When the button raises it behind AND the MP cold calls it, it seems like a pretty easy decision to look at the turn card and evaluate further.

Tilt · #5 02-14-2006, 10:42 PM

You should almost always bet this river. He will check behind most of the time here. If you want to induce the bluff, a small bet usually accomplishes this better than a check. And if you establish a pattern of checking here, your river bluffs will be obvious.

TheRempel · #6 02-15-2006, 01:28 AM

While he may not believe that you hit the backdoor flush, a reasonable player is generally not going to try to bet you out of the pot here. I almost always overbet when I make some backdoor draw (and some busted ones too).

lilkunta2 · #7 02-16-2006, 03:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I raised the MP's weak lead figuring that I had a decent hand and draw both, but was much more cautious after the button's min raise. I didn't have much of a read on him, so he could be minraising with anything between a set, 2 pair, or a draw. I'm much more likely to suspect made hands from unknown players rather than draws when I see a minraise, however. I dunno if this is right or not. I called the raise and picked up a bunch more outs with the nut flush draw. My rationale in the heat of the moment was:

I don't want to get blown off this hand by betting into him here with my strong draw. If he raises all-in after I lead, I'm put to a very difficult decision. I would rather see the river cheaply. If I check and he bets the pot, I can call since I have 16 clean outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

your hand is way to weak for a flop raise. all you have is a pair of 10's with an open ender str8 draw. if it was heads up this raise may be okay as a semi-bluff, but there are other people in the pot you haven't heard from yet. You are lucky the button stick it to you and raise the pot like he should've, but nonetheless if you didn't raise the flop you'd have a lot less to call to see the turn AND the pot would be smaller (important with an aggressor with postion) This isn't one of those omega wraps/flushdraw set combo draws where were trying to get it all in. just call and try to make your hand. while keeping the pot down at the same time. check call the turn is right, but you'd have alot less to invest if you called the flop. once again your lucky he didn't stick it to you witha pot bet.

[ QUOTE ]
After a post mortem on the hand though, I wondered after seeing his 1/2 pot bet on the turn whether or not I should have check-raised myself. Any set would surely bet the pot here as the board is semi-dangerous and wouldn't want to get a cheap river. I might be giving my opponent too much credit for thinking he might even consider this though. Thoughts on checkraising the turn with this hand? Obviously it solves the river dilemma...

[/ QUOTE ]

check raise very bad. your not a favorite to win, so why put more money in the pot as an underdog than you have to. when you're drawing you try to make your hand for as little as possible. which ususally means calling/check call. your only going to raise if you have enough outs that it makes you a favorite OR you are semi-bluffing and bet that an opponent will fold his hand (not happeneing here)

[ QUOTE ]
So the result of the hand is not in doubt, but what about the check on the river? The way I figured it, the BB has some kind of hand and has had the lead throughout. If I bet into him after the 3rd flush card hits, he's definitely going to fold if he has a mediocre hand. By checking the river, I give him the chance to continue firing with his set/two pair/ whatever or on a bluff or give him the chance to bet a weaker flush (since he'd likely not figure that I backdoored the nut flush). My other option is to make a very small value bet. I thought the risk/reward of checking was greater, but I'm not so sure. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

you've heard this already but you have to bet that river. that's the scariest card in the world to him. a flush card and a straight card, and since he probably has a set he pobably doesn't have either one. and since you went check/call check/call check/call all the way home he figures you were drawing at something. try putting yourself in his shoes and look at the board, his hand, and the betting action from his perspective. would you bet that river??????????????