200/400 Check TP HU?

[jogger08152]

Assume the river action will always be bet-call if villain improves. How often does villain need to bluff, in order for a check to be correct?

When he holds QJ, he will improve 10 and bet out 10 times. Of these, he will lose one bet 6 times when he catches a Q or J, and win 5 bets 4 times when he catches a T. Same thing in effect with QT. In order to break even with his 4 winners, you need him to bluff 14 times on the end each time he holds one of these two hands. With 44 possible rivers in each instance, his bluff rate needs to be 33% here.

When he holds 22, 44 or 55, he will improve 2 times each and win 5 bets each time. In order to check in this spot, you need him to bluff 10 times every 44 hands. This is about 23%.

If he is equally likely to hold each of the above hands, he needs to bluff more than 27% of rivers for your check to be correct. (If you use a Bayesian distribution of hands, he will hold QJ and QT combined 32 times for every 18 times he holds a small pair. In this case he would need to bluff at least 31% of the time for a check to be correct.)

All of the above assumes you will never win an extra bet on the end when villain checks (either he check-folds a loser or checkraises or check-calls a winner). If this assumption is incorrect, reduce the above bluffing frequencies by one for every time he will check-call with a loser on the end, and by two for every time he will checkraise a loser (assuming you will call the raise).

Best regards,
Jogger

[IcarusJam]

From the situation, he sounds like a loose aggressive right down to the river. Imo, bet, and pray.

[Shitabyss]

I'm not a big fan of a check-behind here.

A check doesn't look much like an aggressively played unpaired hand which is now giving up, as these would likely take another stab at it when the ace hits (which is one reason to also bet the A).

With a smaller pair I don't think we can give a free card, especially given our read that a c/r bluff is very unlikely. So I prefer the one bet I'm willing to put in to go in on the turn.

And at the end of the day a turn check looks so much like a K or QQ/JJ that's looking for a cheap showdown now that the ace fell, so I think a river bluff is unlikely, as is a valuebet with a pair that didn't cap preflop (to get called by what?). And if he does indeed hold a gutshot we're giving a freecard with 4 cards to loose the pot and 6 cards to win a bet, which stinks.

Also a disclaimer - i thought i was browsing the shorthanded forum, i wouldn't usually post in this forum, sry.

[HOWMANY]

My first thought if I was villain was that I would check/raise the river here no matter what I held like almost every time. I'd actually be more likely to bet if I had a K/A and c/r nothing.