[NL100SH] TPTK against possible/likely set

[Rabenstein]

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $96.60
Hero: $225
CO: $48.75
Button: $90.55
SB: $127.65
BB: $152.95

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($13, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $11</font>, Hero calls, CO folds.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($35, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $22</font>, Hero calls.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($79, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Results:
Final pot: $79

Villian was 16vpip/12pfr, but 4 TAF, so probably a tough one. His large donk in this 3-handed king-high raised pot indicated a strong hand to me, given his preflop call most likely a set or a flushdraw.

Is a calldown a line you can play? Should i fold the turn after he bets again? I wouldnt have called a substantial river bet here.

Thanks

[yesplease]

rabenstain,

i stopped reading once i saw his stack (48BB), your hand (TPTK), the flop (73K 2tone), and the size of the pot after his flop bet (24 w/35 behind). put the pieces together....

[Rabenstein]

You're mistaken, he's deepstacked. Its the SB.

[AggJedi]

I'd like to see you fire about a pot sized bet on this river, since you're probably going to win the pot very often when you do. If he has a set, he'll be very hard pressed to call (if he's observant) since you played the hand as if you had a flush draw the whole time, and now that it's hit, I think it's a really good spot to take the pot away.

[TNUC]

i think this is more likely a draw like 4h5h and i would raise flop.

[Rabenstein]

The last 2 posts put together symbolize my problem [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Rabenstein]

I thought about betting the river hard, but this is NL100. Even if he has no flush but a set, he would rarely fold, because so many villians on NL100 would bet a King or Ace high in position here after the check showed "weakness".

The more fold equity i get from the set, the more suicidal the bet becomes if he actually has the flush. And I don't feel like i could guess the probabilities of his holdings.

If i raised the flop, most players would call the set, and some might call a flushdraw. So if he checks turn, i got to commit myself with TPTK, still not knowing what he is on.

[Rabenstein]

bump. Any more opinions or comments on my thoughts?

[redCashion]

It's marginal, and you can go either way here. But I don't think this is a great spot for a value bet, since as you said he's not folding a set, you will usually fold out worse hands than TPTK with the scary board, and this smells to me like a possible c/r from a made flush. You played for pot control, you're in as marginal spot and might as well show your hand down.