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#1
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[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I think there is money to be made on Phil Stacey. I see him as a a good candidate to make the top 5. If he does this his sell price will be no less than 10 to 12. [/ QUOTE ] i honestly think he has no chance of top 10 [/ QUOTE ] Granny, I respect your oppinions on Idol immensly, and have followed you and road your coatails the last 2 years,but I would be shocked if Stacey does not make the top 10. If you look at his Dialidol scores he was easily in the top 10 the first week. He is also from the south and has a serious, commited type A worker personality. If he sets himself apart from the pop crowd and goes more towards rock, this will garner him votes from the "rock" crowd. Will this be enough to win ... most likely no. I agree with you the winner will probably be Lakisha (at least it looks like it so far). I am just saying there are ways to hedge bets and I believe that there is money to be made on people like Stacey and Richardson trading at 3 - 5 right now. [/ QUOTE ] here is what i think is going on with phil. 1. the other guys sucked so bad that the judges and voters were looking for someone to praise. 2. i think his performance was forgettable (i seriously forgot it already) 3. i think that there are weeks that a sub-par contestant rises to the top of DI. i think this was simply such a week. he does not excite me or even amuse me. he may make top ten, but certainly not better than 8th-ish. BOOK IT edit: i think you are probably right that chris r is a good hedge, and those looking to hedge or diversify would be nuts to pass him up at 3-5. it's just that i don't hedge. i own very few contestants, and only one female. this may be the year that granny crashes and burns, who knows? but i stand by my picks (and NON picks) |
#2
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In the past few years you can generally pick 2-3 people who will win, and one of those people will win. You can do this after one performance. Fantasia, Carrie, Ruben are all very clear examples of this. I personally thought Taylor wouldn't win, but I was wrong that year and shouldn't have ignored his huge fanbase. However if I had to pick 3 people last year who may win, they would have clearly been: Chris, Katherine and Taylor in that order.
I don't think it's at all unreasonable to pick 2-3 people who have a legitimate chance and say that everyone else is pretty much in big trouble. I also stand by Sabrina being 200-1 to win it all, she is clearly inferior to the other good singers, despite one good performance.That combined with her personality problems in comparison to them, gives her basically zero chance. I think she may not even make the final 12, although hopefully she does. Also Phil Stacey was not good and also has basically zero chance. Sanjaya is more likely to win than Phil IMO, because if Sanjaya has a few good performances (which he probably isn't capable of), he would actually become a major force. Phil would be forgettable, maybe sneak into 4th-5th place or so at absolute best. |
#3
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Curtains,
"I also stand by Sabrina being 200-1 to win it all," You wouldn't stand by that price for real cash, so it is sort of silly. Whether you like Sabrina or not, she is a good singer. And she makes her living by singing. 200-1 is absurd, and not at all realistic. I didn't care for her first week performance, but she can sing. |
#4
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Curtains, "I also stand by Sabrina being 200-1 to win it all," You wouldn't stand by that price for real cash, so it is sort of silly. Whether you like Sabrina or not, she is a good singer. And she makes her living by singing. 200-1 is absurd, and not at all realistic. I didn't care for her first week performance, but she can sing. [/ QUOTE ] I wouldnt give 200-1 on a 1000-1 shot so who really cares. I honestly don't think 200-1 is not realistic at all. She has no chance in hell to win, its not even close. |
#5
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I agree that she doesn't seem like she can win right now, but I don't think we've seen enough to determine this.
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#6
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"I wouldnt give 200-1 on a 1000-1 shot so who really cares. I honestly don't think 200-1 is not realistic at all. She has no chance in hell to win, its not even close"
Based on what ? If you really know anything about singing, you would know that she is a very good singer. Doesn't matter if you don't like her looks or style-- she can really sing. Why would a good singer have "no chance in hell " ? That's absurd. You are unlikely to be cashing a lot of tickets when your objectivity gets so out of whack. |
#7
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re Sabrina: I think the real answer is somewhere in between. Sabrina is way overpriced at 7 10 but she's better than 200-1 to win. I'd peg her around 75-1. Probably the best short on WSEX at the moment if you have the bankroll for it.
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#8
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OK. I just watched her performance again. She was better than I thought, and I thought she was pretty good the first time. She has real talent. She can sing.
If you want to short her, please let me know and I will be at WSEX or Intrade to get the other side when you get her to 20-1 for me. That shouldn't be a problem, since you say she has little or no shot. I think it is WAAAAAYYYY too early to short her. There are some weak singers that will get the boot before her. I did not really care for her week 1 performance myself (not my thing), but I would not be shorting any good singer this early-- and Sabrina is a good singer. |
#9
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re Sabrina: I think the real answer is somewhere in between. Sabrina is way overpriced at 7 10 but she's better than 200-1 to win. I'd peg her around 75-1. Probably the best short on WSEX at the moment if you have the bankroll for it. [/ QUOTE ] Put my money where my mouth is and shorted her for all I had in my WSEX acccount. Free money. Surprised her price didn't move. I know I said I was done gambling on AI this year but I just feel there is so little chance of her winning that it's not even gambling to do this. Anyway only had $770 in there, so risking 700 to win 49. If I had more money in there that I wasn't using at all I would have put it all against her. The problem is that it only makes sense if you aren't really gambling on AI because other better deals will probably come up, and you'll need capital to take advantage of them. |
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