Put villain on a range of hands

[ipushufold]

Villain is 36/16/1.36 with a flop aggression of 5.25. This is over 400+hands.

Game #3220100763: Hold'em NL ($0.15/$0.25) - 2007/02/22 - 07:10:10 (DST)
Table "Masters" Seat 4 is the button.
Seat 1: UTG ($10 in chips)
Seat 2: UTG+1 ($40.70 in chips)
Seat 3: CO ($16.95 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero ($24.75 in chips)
Seat 5: SB ($9.50 in chips)
Seat 6: BB(Villain) ($61.55 in chips)
SB: posts small blind $0.15
BB(Villain): posts big blind $0.25
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Hero 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG+1: folds
CO: folds
Hero: raises to $0.75
SB: folds
BB(Villain): calls $0.50
----- FLOP ----- 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB(Villain): checks
Hero: bets $1.25
BB(Villain): raises to $2.50
Hero: raises to $7
BB(Villain): raises to $60.80 and is all-in

I'm looking for ranges here. Not "he has JJ". Please explain why.

[barryc83]

44, lots of draws (Axc, J9, J9s, 67, pair+FD), maybe the occasional slowplayed overpair. His flop AF is pretty high though so I'd guess he's playing draws aggressively. I'd call here.

I've been running top 2 into bottom set a lot lately too.

[Warteen]

He smoothcalled preflop, so he probably doesn't have an overpair or a set of tens (unless you've known him to just call preflop with TT+ - I've seen deceptive villains do that, but it's not the standard play).
He'd be a complete donk to be doing this with anything as weak as top pair, so that rules out AT, KT, etc.
As discussed in other threads, people love to push on combo draws, and some villains will push on naked flush draws (especially if they think you'll fold, as in this situation where he might put you on an overpair that you can't possibly call with). On the other hand, a set here would want to get as much money as possible in the pot because of the flush draw. Check-minraising, however, was a stupid way to do that, because if you were indeed on a flush draw, he's pricing you in.

Bearing that in mind, I would put his range at:
{A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] x [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J9o}
He could very well have a set, so throw 44 and 88 in that range, but if he does, he misplayed it.
At any rate, I'm pretty sure you have to fold here and find a better spot. You're a 60% favorite at best (naked flush draw) and dominated at worst (set).

Also, you probably should raise 4x preflop, not 3x.

[Montezuma21]

i think we can assume villain doesn't have an overpair. he's also unlikely to have a set, because a villain who minraises the flop to get value out of a set is not going to suddenly push overbet. he's more likely to keep minraising to get the most money into the pot. definitely not impossible, though, as he could be scared of the draws and not want to see a turn.

what's more likely is a combo flush draw, probably suited overcards or an OESFD.

so you're probably behind and should fold. having said this, i probably call.

[Splossy]

I would have thought a set not unlikely at all. He check raises a little and for value and when he gets reraised he thinks "this guy is prolly gonna call an AI"

[boycalledroy]

I'd drop one buyin on top two, especially as I think the villian, looking at his stats has either A10, J10. If he has 4 to a flush with overcards, I STILL get the cash in because I'm in the lead. Get the cash in, you will see tptk a lot more than you think.

[eternal_]

44,A4s,J9s+

[FalconTi0]

i'd say 44 or some kind of combo draw. i always get mini raised when villains have sets i noticed. and some kind of combo draw seems likely also

[bohus04]

[ QUOTE ]
44, lots of draws (Axc, J9, J9s, 67, pair+FD), maybe the occasional slowplayed overpair. His flop AF is pretty high though so I'd guess he's playing draws aggressively. I'd call here.



[/ QUOTE ]

[Willd]

If you put villain on a range of Axcc (where x > 10), J9cc, 97cc and 44 then folding here is bad since you're calling $18 into a $34 pot so you only need ~35% equity for the call to be break even. Against that range you have 41% equity so folding is a clear mistake.

The only time you could ever fold this after 3-betting the flop is if villain would only shove with 44 or the combo draws (J9cc and 97cc) and even then it's still not a huge mistake (less of a mistake than not calling if he shoves with overs + fd).