NL50 (6): Bottom set, ugly board, pretty fish

[fooz]

Villain is 66/18/1.7/25

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $61.80
UTG+1: $51.80
CO: $21.30
Button: $70.95
SB: $28.45
BB: $64.25

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#000000">Hero raises to $2</font>, 3 folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($4.5, 2 players)
<font color="#000000">SB bets $1.5</font>, <font color="#000000">Hero raises to $5</font>, SB calls.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($14.5, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#000000">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="#000000">SB raises to $15</font>, Hero ?

**

He'd donked like this a time or two and was folding to my reraises.

All-in?

[SNO FLAKE]

TURBO MUCK

[IsaacAsimov]

I woudln't say this is a turbo muck. a) you don't have bottom set and b) assuming he has the straight, you have 10 live outs. You have odds of 3.5-1, you could call and fold the river unimproved. This may look strange, but you have the odds and implied odds to do so.
Why bet so little on the turn? I think you open yourself to bluffs in such a spot. You could check behind and take a free river card. This guy isn't really aggresive so he could theoretically have a 7 here.
Calling the turn here and folding the river unimproved is + EV imo.

[fooz]

Folding to a 6.50 bet on the River with a $30+ pot? ..really?

[IsaacAsimov]

I just saw that I miscalculated the stack of villain. But theoretically it is +EV, just looks really silly and you'd probably talk yourself into calling. Shoving probably isn't good against his range, so folding would be best I'd guess (probably for your table image aswell). I think giving up a small edge here is good if you can push a bigger one against villain later.
Can you explain to me what you were thinking when you bet 5 $ on the turn?

[Check_The_Nuts]

wow why would you ever bet that turn with a set.

[spacetime]

This is a case where you need to check the turn. You have redraw outs. Your $5, ~1/3 pot bet here is weak, a decent opponent is raising that all day long.

[bohus04]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a case where you need to check the turn. You have redraw outs. Your $5, ~1/3 pot bet here is weak, a decent opponent is raising that all day long.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you know we are behind here?

In my opinion this is quite easy shove on turn. Villan could have str8(against which we have outs) but he can also have various two pair, pair + str8D, overpair loke slowplayed QQ+ (esp. if hes a fish). The only holdings we are screwed against are 88,99.

I think, i'm either missing here, or the given advice here is quite bad imo(no offense).

[Check_The_Nuts]

bo, guy has a huge range. 60% VPIP means a straight is very much in his range, and he could definitely lead call on the flop with.

Also guy is most likely awful, and will definitely stack off with a straight on a paired river (which is bad versus decent opponent). His crap overpair hands that he doesn't realize are no good don't make up for the board texture.

@ 50NL I find most villians stop stacking off when they are VERY obviously beat. 25NL not so much.