10/20 flopped set facing weird river c/r

[maggie33]

10/20 6max effective stacks $4k
Villian been at the table for ~2 orbits and doubled up quick AA vs. KK so no reads
Folded to hero on the button, makes it $70 with 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB calls, BB folds

flop($160) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB checks, Hero bets $110, SB calls

turn($380) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB checks, Hero bets $240, SB calls

river ($860) J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB checks, Hero bets $500, SB raises to $2200 total

Hero?

[farmslicer7]

j9?

[teddyFBI]

ummmmm...instapush?

[TheBandit]

[ QUOTE ]

SB checks, Hero bets $500, SB raises to $2200 total

Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

Snapcalls? Honestly, he can't have 7 10, and Q10 is highly unlikely as well. There's no flush possiblity, so you're only afraid of 99, 88, or JJ. However, 88-JJ probably reraise PF, and I think of the 3, only 9s would check-call flop and turn. When he checks river instead of betting, this has to be a call against what is probably 2-pr.

[TheBandit]

[ QUOTE ]
ummmmm...instapush?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you think that 2-pr will reraise river but likely fold to a push? I think if you push the extra ~1400 in there, I think you fold out the losers and get called by the oversets. I don't see a fold, but I can't see a push either (unless history dictates that villain overcalls on river).

[edge]

Pushing is pretty bad unless you have an extremely tricky playing style.

[teddyFBI]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing is pretty bad unless you have an extremely tricky playing style.

[/ QUOTE ]
nah...
instapush

[fsuplayer]

pushing is dumb if villian is good. no way J9 calls the shove.

[maggie33]

Yeah, the big question I had here was push/call. Although his hand looks like J9 most of the time, he could conceivably have 88/JJ as well (although the line for this would be absolutely horrible imo). Am I ahead enough % of the time for a push to be profitable?

[farmslicer7]

[ QUOTE ]
pushing is dumb if villian is good. no way J9 calls the shove.

[/ QUOTE ]
j9 doesn't call a shove of 1.4 more?