harrington question - T3o, middle position, M=3.3

[RichC.]

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This is a mega clear fold online.

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QFT.

You can always find a better place and a better hand to push from MP. This is and easy push from the button and the sb.

[nath]

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Oh btw, there was a loooong thread on this subject a while back, where raptor came in and mocked everyone who said you should push in situations like this (well, kinda anyway). LearnedFromTV wrote some brilliant posts in it. Wish I remembered the name :/

Basically (and I hope I'm not paraphrasing too much here), raptor's point was that even though the situation says a push is marginally (as in, very marginally) +cEV, chances are you'll get a more +cEV situation by folding. Things took off from there. Very interesting discussion.

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I remember this thread, and I didn't post in it at the time, but I disagree with virtually everyone here. With an M of 3.3 you need to take even a marginal +cEV spot so that when you get into a good one, you have enough chips to make a double-up significant.

I think one of the biggest weaknesses this forum has in short stack thinking is waiting to make sure they get their money in good, rather than just getting it in while they have enough to make a difference and hoping for the best.

[Marnixvdb]

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Oh btw, there was a loooong thread on this subject a while back, where raptor came in and mocked everyone who said you should push in situations like this (well, kinda anyway). LearnedFromTV wrote some brilliant posts in it. Wish I remembered the name :/

Basically (and I hope I'm not paraphrasing too much here), raptor's point was that even though the situation says a push is marginally (as in, very marginally) +cEV, chances are you'll get a more +cEV situation by folding. Things took off from there. Very interesting discussion.

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I remember this thread, and I didn't post in it at the time, but I disagree with virtually everyone here. With an M of 3.3 you need to take even a marginal +cEV spot so that when you get into a good one, you have enough chips to make a double-up significant.

I think one of the biggest weaknesses this forum has in short stack thinking is waiting to make sure they get their money in good, rather than just getting it in while they have enough to make a difference and hoping for the best.

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I'm all for stealing/restealing whenever i feel i can pick up the pot and the pot size/stack size ratio is good in relation to the calling ranges.

In general I think you shouldn't even allow yourself to be blinded off to <8 big blinds (or ~5.25M - sorry I'm used to thinking about my stack in number of big blinds, corrected for the antes), I'd push hand that do decent when called (mainly suited connectors, decent pairs and good aces) with ten big blinds from MP to early position IF my image is right AND the blinds are not too loose, to keep some restealing FE or double up to a really healthy stack.

But sometimes you happen to lose a part of your stack, or you don't get any opportunity to steal at all, and you are left with only a few blinds, forcing to play the correct ultrashort strategy.

This example, T3o in MP vs. stacks that can call light, doesn't strike me as fitting to aforementioned criteria though, but I realise math could prove it is (slightly) +cEV.

In regarding such a situation, shouldn't we also weigh the narrower calling ranges of your opponents if you push from earlier position? This is offset by the extra hand(s) you need to fold out obv, but still it could make waiting a hand or 2 for something better than T3o, to push into narrower calling ranges, better.

I am always looking for spots that might give me an edge to pick up chips uncontested and from experience this T3o situation strikes me as a negative proposition, although I don't have numbers ready to back this up.

Another thing I have always applied, but never calculated, is when you have only 3 or 4 big blinds left and you are UTG. I see a lot of people pushing everything here, but I have always felt it is better to only push your good hands, and to muck the rest, to call any2 in the BB.

First, because your push is virtually always called, at the very least by the BB, so your actually calling allin UTG with any2.

Second, in the BB you still have a little 'FE': sometimes you get a walk. It doens't happen often, but likely more often then when you push UTG, so it adds a little to your expectation.

Of course, if you push UTG and BB calls, you get the same odds as when you call in the BB when some raises the next hand. Your odds are better if you push, and someone isolates, but you will be up against a better hand. Ssometimes two or more people call, giving you even better odds, but even less chance of winning the pot. This may happen about just as often as when you call in the bb after a raise/reraise in front, and in this case you will on average be up against lesser and fewer hands than when you start the action UTG.

Has there ever been discussion on this issue, or has somone ran some numbers on this situation? Or should i make a new thread for this issue?

[Sessna]

push [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Soulman]

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Oh btw, there was a loooong thread on this subject a while back, where raptor came in and mocked everyone who said you should push in situations like this (well, kinda anyway). LearnedFromTV wrote some brilliant posts in it. Wish I remembered the name :/

Basically (and I hope I'm not paraphrasing too much here), raptor's point was that even though the situation says a push is marginally (as in, very marginally) +cEV, chances are you'll get a more +cEV situation by folding. Things took off from there. Very interesting discussion.

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I remember this thread, and I didn't post in it at the time, but I disagree with virtually everyone here. With an M of 3.3 you need to take even a marginal +cEV spot so that when you get into a good one, you have enough chips to make a double-up significant.

I think one of the biggest weaknesses this forum has in short stack thinking is waiting to make sure they get their money in good, rather than just getting it in while they have enough to make a difference and hoping for the best.

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I think this may vary from site to site as well actually. On Stars, pushing when it's folded to you and you have a short stack is probably more important than on other sites I play (like OnGame), where people generally are much tighter. It's not too uncommon on Stars for every single hand to be raised from mid to late in the tourney, so you rarely get the chance to find a better +cEV spot...since most other spots will actually be -cEV unless you luck out and catch a monster. I imagine Full Tilt to be much the same, with the higher antes (for some reason, I can't stand the place...although I love the antes) you don't have much time.

The main point being, sometimes you won't find another +cEV spot if you fold T3o from MP3, but in general I think you just might.

I think a lot of players (especially here) go through a too loose (n00b donk) - too tight (n00b weak-tight) - too pushy (yay! pushing is fun!) development, and recognizing when to back off is good as well, and a frequently underdeveloped skill. Especially in higher buy-ins, where people might call light.

[omaha]

Very interesting to see nath and bond on very opposite poles on this question. I think naths comments about players waiting too long is bad, but also get bonds idea.

The clincher for me is that the blinds are about to go through us, and assuming we dont get a hand in the next two deals, we can no longer threaten anyone, and really cease to exist.

What was the answer and reasoning?

[registrar]

My default is the Nath camp. I think you should push more or less anything here, mathematically speaking. However, image and table dynamic (and site) do come into play. If you think that you are getting called every time (which could well be true if everyone else has 5k and is expecting you to open push anything at first opportunity), then I might take my chances and wait to see if I got anything better (vaguely connecting, high or suited) in the next three hands. My default is to push here though.

[nath]

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The main point being, sometimes you won't find another +cEV spot if you fold T3o from MP3, but in general I think you just might.

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My point is that with an M of 3, if we're serious about winning the tournament, we need to take ANY +cEV situation available to us and possibly even marginally -cEV spots because picking up enough chips to fight with is just far too important.

[Sherman]

I'm confused about the question. Am I under the gun? Is this a SNG or an MTT?

If there are 5 players left and the first player folds, I probably push here.

[PhatPots]

I fold this due to position. As one of the other posters eloquently state, I have to hope a better chance will come along.