25NL - Flopped boat, slowplay gone bad?

[gumpzilla]

I think this hand is pretty gross, but you knew that.

I'm not an FR player, but even so I think I'd still be inclined to raise 99 in that spot. Having gone the way it did, yes, it's a pretty easy call.

When you hit the flop, and the raiser has checked to you, I think you really need to bet this flop. If he does have a draw, given those stats, it's going to be a draw with overs, and he isn't going to fold that. If he doesn't have a draw, and is whiffing on an intended c/r, then there are a lot of scary cards that come on the turn that kill your action. Given those nitty PF stats, and that he is raising OOP, you have to think the most probable hands for BB is overpairs, which are going to want to get a lot of money in here.

On the turn, again, raise him. More draws getting there can hurt you as much as help you if they scare KK or AA off at this point.

River: If you're going to raise for value here, I'd raise more than that, by at least a couple of bucks. QJ is somewhat unlikely given the PF stats, and JJ-QQ aren't likely trying this stunt. So, let's put him on a range of TT, KK, AK, AA for now. If that's his range, then it's an easy call, getting the odds you're getting. Is he going to play AK or AA that hard? I'm not sure. This is probably where the full ring issue comes in most. If you get rid of AK and just leave TT, KK, AA, then it would be breakeven at 2-1, so then it's up to you.

[Maple Leafs]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a terrible spot to slowplay. Fortunately for your opponents, you still do it even though you know it's wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]
I slowplay too much and I know it, but what makes this a terrible spot to try it?

Seems like if you're going to slowplay a boat, a board with flush and straight possibilities isn't a terrible spot to do it, no?

[Maple Leafs]

[ QUOTE ]
More draws getting there can hurt you as much as help you if they scare KK or AA off at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is a key factor that didn't enter by brain at all, but needed to.

[Pokey]

The worst feeling in poker is when your monster runs into a slightly smaller monster and you lost oodles of value by slowplaying.

I don't hate your preflop play, though I would tend to make this play more often at a table where I KNEW my folding equity was crappy. With a hand like 99, I either want to be heads-up having raised preflop or I want to be 4-way or more. At a particularly loose table, limping can get you those bloated pot odds that translate into a big payday when you flop your set, but at a normal or tighter table I would tend to go for the folding equity and the heads-up pot.

On the flop, this is a great opportunity for you to bet. I'd probably make it $1.25 or $1.50. Why? Because of my relative position. BB was the preflop raiser and he checked, but he's directly on my right. When I make a smallish bet I gain many benefits:

1. MP3 is in a bitch of a position -- he has to decide if BB is going to smooth-call behind him (giving him fantastic implied odds), or fold behind him (giving him decent-but-not-outstanding implied odds), or whipsaw him with a check-raise (giving him garbage implied odds). Worse yet, after a check-raise, there's always the chance that we reraise or even push, and that translates into throwing the bet into the trash. Your folding equity against a thinking MP3 will be high. Against an UNTHINKING MP3 you'll have low folding equity and you'll also be trapping him for another bet before BB makes his move.

2. If MP3 folds, BB will be under considerable pressure assuming he doesn't have a strong hand. The chance of a cascade fold against both MP3 and BB are relatively high. That's not something to fear; rather, it's something to remember for future reference. Don't avoid betting this spot with your boat; rather, remember to bet this spot when you've got a cruddy hand like AQ.

3. If BB is getting tricky and going for a check-raise, you can REALLY screw him in this hand. Your hand is almost certainly the best, and if your hand is best your opponent is drawing to at most two outs. You're miles ahead of villain's range, and you should be looking for any way to get the money in the middle. By betting the flop you bloat the pot enough that it will get progressively easier to trap villain into calling enough on the turn and river so that you're both all-in. Big hands like big pots, and this is a VERY big hand -- play it accordingly.

As played, by the turn you're going to have some considerable difficulties getting the money into the middle. Putting $21 into the middle in two betting rounds with a $2.35 pot is going to be VERY hard -- that's the very best argument for betting the flop, by the way. Luckily, BB has gotten the ball rolling with his BS bet. OK, your mistake on the flop has cost you money, but it's time to salvage what you can. Raise the turn. MP3 is gone, so forget about him -- barring some miracle he's out of the hand. Focus on getting as much cash from BB as humanly possible. A solid raise to $4 or $5 should get called by a hand with potential (unless he's already scared off, at which point it's over). Assume he's got something that he likes -- QJ, JJ+, T9, etc. -- and make a play accordingly. Remember: if he's got 88 you're losing all the money no matter what you do, and if he's got AQ or 33 you're not getting any more money no matter what you do, so these holdings are irrelevant to your calculations. Don't worry about how to squeeze $1 more out of 66; worry about how to squeeze $20 more out of hands that could go either way. You squeeze more money out of second-best hands by betting and raising, not checking and calling.

On the river you finally attack. BB fights back -- this is an instant call. If he's got exactly 88, TT, or KK, so be it -- you lose your stack, and that's a bummer. If he's got AK or QJ or T9 or 98 or 76 or a bluff you stack him. The odds that you are ahead here are overwhelmingly greater than what the pot is offering you, so this is an easy, easy call.

In the future, when you have a big hand think about the best way to make a big pot. Rarely does that happen by checking and calling, and this wasn't one of those rare times.

[DannyOcean_]

I didn't read everyone's replies, but two things immediately popped into my head

INSTA

and

CALL.

You have the 4th nuts, behind 88 and TT and KK. But the turn and river were sooooo good to you because they hit far more hands than just those. I feel like a typical micro player will pay off here with KT, AK, QJ, any 8, AA, and some other weird stuff too like 67, J7, KQ, etc. You are winning this far more than you are losing in any reasonable estimation. I think this is one of the few acceptable times to slowpaly, because you essentially flop the nuts on a drawy board. The lesser draw hits hard with a T and K, so this is great for us. He hit, now lets watch him dump his chips to us.